Utopia Talk / Politics / Russian natural gas cutoff

Turtle Crawler Admin	Sun Dec 29 23:21:29 http://fin...-eu-action-head-200459524.html Fico, whose country is highly dependent on Russia for natural gas, estimated that European households and businesses could face an additional €40 billion to €50 billion ($42 billion to $52 billion) annually in higher gas prices and another €60 billion to €70 billion per year in extra electricity costs. In contrast, Russia would lose about €2 billion annually if Ukraine halts transit, he said.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Sun Dec 29 23:24:59 Personally I hope they cut it off, and I don't invest in international markets. Apparently Ukraine figured out their natural gas comes from Russia too.
Sam Adams Member	Sun Dec 29 23:52:03 How does europe lose 100 billion but russia lose 2. That doesnt make sense.
Im better then you 2012 UP Football Champ	Mon Dec 30 01:14:04 I assume Russia is selling more to China at cheaper rates.
Paramount Member	Mon Dec 30 02:18:47 I hope Brussels continues to make europe poorer and weaker. It will make it easier for Russia to conquer us.
Seb Member	Mon Dec 30 03:58:49 Well I'm sure Fico's estimates are based on very reasonable estimates.
Seb Member	Mon Dec 30 03:58:59 *assumptions.
murder Member	Mon Dec 30 04:23:12 He got his numbers straight from the Kremlin.
jergul large member	Mon Dec 30 05:43:53 Sammy Its how the EU energy market works. Spot prices are set by the last m3 ok kwh sold at auction. The most expensive accepted bid sets the price for everything. The mechanism the regulates shortfalls is cost that drives demand down to meet supply. Electricity is compounded by Ukrainian connectors and Russia bombing the shit out of Ukrainian power. Russia might as well be bombing electricity production in Poland in terms of how it impacts on prices. The problem here is stupid incentives. Ukraine does not care for as long as we are covering all its costs anyway. But yah, in the meantime, the distruction of Europe's non-Norwegian economic base continues. It if of course fucking brilliant for norway. Is there any more Russian pipelines we can blow up I wonder?
jergul large member	Mon Dec 30 05:45:48 The EU sort of has to give up on market mechanisms setting prices at this point I think. We already own 1.5% of global stocks. That is rather a lot.
jergul large member	Mon Dec 30 05:47:42 I am not saying his numbers are correct. It seems high and the Russian loss low. But there is close to an order of magnitude difference in losses anyway.
Paramount Member	Mon Dec 30 06:45:56 ” Is there any more Russian pipelines we can blow up I wonder” There is the Turkstream. Maybe Biden can arrange so that four Kurds in a canoe can blow it up before he leaves the White House.
jergul large member	Mon Dec 30 07:18:09 By "we", I mean Norway. I think it pretty clear we were involved in NS. Poland is the only other alternative, but did it gain from increased natural gas prices that followed? But sure, millions of norwegians vacation in Turkey each year. I am sure we could rent a sailing boat and repeat the endevour.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Mon Dec 30 17:28:02 Word is there was a plan to go after turk stream but Erdoğan vetoed it. Looks like the EU uses about 300 billion cubic meters of gas a year, about 14 of that is through Ukraine. Europe prices are up to say $50 per mwh. One cubic meter is 10.55 kwh. Thats about 7.4B$ to replace the natural gas itself at current prices or $160B for all of the gas used. To get another 100B cost would require prices to go up significantly... yeah I'm also not sure how he got those numbers.
Forwyn Member	Mon Dec 30 18:32:06 I know! Just shut down the remaining nuke plants, problem solved.
williamthebastard Member	Mon Dec 30 18:41:43 Yea, the rightwing populist govt in Sweden did that and its a catastrophe. They decided wind power etc. was for hippy homosexuals, because they judge things like children - you're an alpha male if you like nuclear power because it sounds all macho and full of shiny buttons and flashing lights, and eating big macs means you're a powerful man - and now it turns out their planned nuke power plants wont be ready for another 20 years, plus no private companies are at all willing to invest in them unless they're paid for with taxpayers money first.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Dec 30 18:55:03 “they judge things like children“ This is apparently written without self-deprecating irony. It isn’t satire.
murder Member	Mon Dec 30 19:35:46 "But sure, millions of norwegians vacation in Turkey each year. I am sure we could rent a sailing boat and repeat the endevour." Your entire country vacations in Turkey? There are only 5.6 million Norwegians.
Turtle Crawler Admin	Tue Dec 31 17:32:28 Europeans so fun to watch http://fin...ipation-ukraine-084626720.html Gas for February advanced as much as 4.5% on Tuesday, hitting €50 a megawatt-hour. A five-year deal between Moscow and Kyiv to move Russian gas to central Europe is set to lapse when the clock runs out on 2024, with no arrangement yet in place to avert a stoppage in supplies. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejected any deal that would keep Russian gas flowing and financially benefit the nation’s war adversary. Uncertainty over these supplies — which meet about 5% of total European gas demand — has caused price volatility, with benchmark futures up more than 50% this year.
Dukhat Member	Wed Jan 01 01:06:36 Probably something that could be largely offset by all the nuclear power plants shut down in Germany. So many left/center-left leaders were scoring easy political points comparing themselves to Trump that they forgot to actually fucking govern well.
Sam Adams Member	Wed Jan 01 01:37:19 "Probably something that could be largely offset by all the nuclear power plants shut down in Germany." Correct. Lol germany.
Paramount Member	Wed Jan 01 02:37:56 I hope Russia can invade us this year and replace our stupid leaders with smarter leaders.
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