Utopia Talk / Politics / Ukraine

Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 08:23:01 So Trump decided to eat cheese and try to surrender on behalf of Ukraine a call with Putin. Ukraine and Europe have basically said they aren't going to honour any agreement Trump unilaterally makes. Meanwhile his SECDEF has announced US security guarantees are no longer a thing; which raises significant questions on whether it's viable for Europe to host or facilitate US military. Are we going to embroil ourselves in US wars by allowing US military to overfly European territory? It opens us to attack and the US now tells us its up to us to defend ourselves from reprecussions. Which is fair enough, but that means we need to control our risk, and that means substantial controls over US military activity on, through or over European territory and airspace. And European re-militarisation obviously means re-shoring jobs and activities outsourced to the US.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 08:53:34 Russian journalist's and politicians ecstatic, claiming they got everything Putin wanted. Trump is going to give Putin a visit with full state honours. To use a term the alt right likes, the US is getting cucked.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Thu Feb 13 09:47:43 The great deal maker.
Rugian Member	Thu Feb 13 09:47:49 "Are we" Who is "we," Brit? Just because you like to fantasize about still being in the EU doesn't make it so.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 09:57:28 It’s about time that European leaders and others wakes up to reality. Ukraine is not going to defeat Russia. They were not going to do it in 2022 and not in 2025 and likely not anytime in the foreseeable future. ”Ukraine and Europe have basically said they aren't going to honour any agreement Trump unilaterally makes.” The agreement is between the USA and Russia. Neither Ukraine or Europe is involved. But Ukraine has said that they are ready for peace. Or you saying that they no longer wants the war to end? As the losing side, Ukraine can’t dictate the terms for peace. They can chose to continue the war, or course. But such decision is only going to make it worse for Ukraine. And Europe? I don’t think Russia cares a lot about Europe and what they wish.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 10:07:19 The anti-Russian warmongers in Europe can stomp their feet on the ground and cry. Why should Russia care.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Feb 13 10:13:01 Trump is retarded. None of this is going to happen Europe is too cheap and soft to defend itself
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 10:26:30 Europe is dying. It defeated itself. The US surely helped by destroying our energy infrastructure and forcing us to buy expensive LNG. Lol Europe is getting poorer by the day. The prosperity that we built up with cheap Russian energy no longer exists. If our entire budgets are going to be allocated towards a militarization it will eventually create unrest and governments will be toppled.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 10:37:01 ” Meanwhile his SECDEF has announced US security guarantees are no longer a thing” As I understand it, the US is not going to leave NATO. They are stopping the support to Ukraine.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 10:56:41 Rugian: SECDEF didn't say the EU. He said Europe. And your early warning radars are not in the EU, the ones that the Russians keep doing practice first nuclear strike runs on over the north sea, they are in Yorkshire. So it seems to me if the only US security guarantees we have are through NATO, and you've just officially told us that they aren't going to be honoured, we should turn them off and kick you out. Similarly, there is a massive logistical hub for supplying munitions out from the US up near Glasgow which feeds down via Germany to support your activities in the middle east. Needs to go: we can't be supporting a country that is merely friendly, not an ally, in attacks on third countries that may wish to retaliate. There's also the matter of the airbase in Middenhall and Lakenheath from which B52's and F15s operate to strike in the Middle East Theatre, and provide inflight refuelling for strikes and flights launched from the US mainland. They will need to go too.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 10:58:23 Sam: "Europe is too cheap and soft to defend itself" Even if that were true, it doesn't matter. Then US has formally announced it isn't going to defend Europe, so even if you are completely correct here, Europe needs to kick the US out immediately lest it be attacked by one of America's enemies that it launches attacks on from European soil.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 10:59:41 If Europe cannot defend itself, it definitely cannot afford to make itself a target by hosting US forces whose sole purpose for being in Europe is to attack other countries, or to provide defence for the US.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 11:00:34 Paramount: "But Ukraine has said that they are ready for peace" Not on the terms that the US has announced. They've just said that explicitly too.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 11:01:06 ” They will need to go too.” You don’t have to be so drastic. You can always join the US, like Canada, and become its 52nd state. For the sake of freedom.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Feb 13 11:01:25 Seb you are never, absolutely never, going to do anything that might result in you kicking out your US shield and then needing to defend yourself. Stop this make believe faggotry.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 11:03:04 Sam: What shield? Your government just announced there is no shield.
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 11:06:57 da war been lost just like everyone been sayin on youtube and da internet 4 over 1.5 almost 2 years now. we been chewein propfunda over here how da ruskies have enormous losses, how da economiez gonna collapse soon, how they diggin through washin machines 4 parts, how there tanks r breakin downs and shit. in reality shits da opposite. there was no ghost. there was no humiliation. it all boils down 2 this. without murican aid, how long can u chose 2 live in denial and murican aid is gonna go. they is broke. they cant afford 2 send shit nomore. they r swingin round wildly closin down everything that costs monies. everywhere but da military of course coz duuuuh so who responsible 4 da pipeline, everybody sayin they know who dun it
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 11:11:11 ” Not on the terms that the US has announced. They've just said that explicitly too.” What is Ukraine going to do about it? They are losing on the battlefield and they have lost support from the US.
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 11:12:20 douglas mcgregor been sayin this shit 4 over a year, lots of fanatic copers and reddit mothafuckas chose 2 live in denial and mocked him... well guess who turns out 2 be right and who wrong.
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 11:14:51 "They are losing on the battlefield and they have lost support from the US. " >> yup
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 11:21:30 i also noticed how shit really started changin after oreshnik reveal last year... i remember all da copes and ppl sayin how shit it is and mockery...well, turns out it really was xtremely scary
jergul large member	Thu Feb 13 11:40:43 What seb is actually saying is that logistical decoupling is a relevant punitive measure for unilateral US decisions in Europe's backyard. It begs the question. It the US setting up a scenario where two of its three main competitors are locked in cold war the US skirts by? Ideally in a manner where the US surplants Russia as a supplier of energy. Neatly removing an advantage cheap energy provided European industry. The immediate problem is European rearmament while supplying an active conflict. The choice here is almost binary. Either rearm or supply an active conflict, though an armaments industrial base needs to be reconstructed in any event.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 11:57:54 Paramount: Keep fighting. Russia isn't making much progress, it's economy is on the ropes and they are having to get North Korean troops in and send their own back to the front with serious injuries.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 12:05:08 Jergul: Supply an active conflict. No brainer. Especially if you think Russia & Europe are getting lined up for a cold war. If you cut Ukraine loose and go for rearmament there's no way to force a Russian collapse and acceptance of the European model (they do not need to join in, they need to accept it exists, that states freely joining it will do so, and they can't stop that). The best way out for Europe here is to double down on Ukraine until Russia is forced to make peace on Ukrainian terms. Russia can't really break through, and as long as the Ukraine war is hot Russia can't attack Europe. We and Ukraine can sustain longer than they can. The defence bank is a pretty good idea to fund rearmament also.
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 12:06:57 Jergul: No, not just a punitive measure, I'm saying the current US position (use of European based facilities for US military ends, without security guarantees) is fundamentally untenable.
Sam Adams Member	Thu Feb 13 12:13:28 Its funny that seb pretends to care about eu defense in this thread yet cares so little about eu defense in the migrant attack thread. You arent going to rearm seb. This is a farce and you know it.
williamthebastard Member	Thu Feb 13 12:20:24 "It the US setting up a scenario where two of its three main competitors are locked in cold war the US skirts by?" Trump is nowhere near strategic enough for that, though he probably has people around him that could plan for that. He doesnt listen to anyone, though, and much prefers to threaten people rather than make wily deals. He's probably a lot closer to provoking a cold war with China and getting the US tied up in that and a simultaneous economic conflict with the EU, however.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 12:21:37 Seb ”Russia isn't making much progress” They are making progress. ”it's economy is on the ropes” Russias GDP grew by 4.1% in 2024. UK’s economy grow by 0.5% (?) in 2024. ”they are having to get North Korean troops in” People been talking about these North Koreans for a while but no one has seen them. I doubt Russia needs Korean troops. Russia has no shortage of manpower.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 12:30:40 Meanwhile in Ukraine. Zelensky is making himself a dictator: http://youtu.be/ptZdjgEch6w
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 12:30:51 Paramount: They really aren't. They are accruing casualties at a horrific rate to gain a few km of land, and trying to turn that into a narrative of inevitable victory. At the current rate it would take them decades to achieve victory and their entire fighting age male population. "Russias GDP grew by 4.1%" A fuckton of stimulus will do that. Look at productive capacity, aggregate demand and unemployment. Everything's going into the war, which may lol good in GDP terms, a transaction is a transaction for the purposes of statistics, but it's not actually productive to be burning the wealth and blood if your country for some hedgerow.
Paramount Member	Thu Feb 13 13:07:49 I wonder how the morale of the Ukrainian soldiers will be effected by this. They know that they will not get any more weapons or money from the USA. They have heard the US say that returning to 2014 border is unrealistic. So, will the Ukrainians want to keep fighting, risking their lives for nothing?
Seb Member	Thu Feb 13 13:14:15 Wow, US SecDef says it would take the US 7 years to build the ships needed to take on Russia at sea. Sounds like America isn't able to actually provide security if it was so inclined.
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 13:17:31 coz they is broke havent u seend da planes malfunction all over da place
TheChildren Member	Thu Feb 13 13:33:52 why u think doge is cleanin house they lost 300 billion in this war without even officially partakin its called gettin owned when da space station ends, it will costs them 700 bill and 25 years 2 build a new one. it is impossible. shuldve played neutral between da big empires. yes da fakemedia lied 2 u about dependancy so u became independant of 1 but fully dependant on them. u got owned, this is wut shortsighteness and gettin brainwashed by anglofakenews means.
jergul large member	Thu Feb 13 17:23:23 Seb By all means, if you think the casualty ratio favours Ukraine, then keep on playing until proven right or wrong. Real incomes improved by 9% last year in Russia. Consumer spending is up 25% in real terms since the start of the war. At worst, Russia is moving into a Western loop where the production of consumer goods is outsourced to china. Feel free to press x for doubt, but be open to the chance Russia is not on a timer. What then? Review in a year and see how it has played out?
Sam Adams Member	Thu Feb 13 19:13:55 Both seb and jergul just make shit up.
murder Member	Thu Feb 13 19:43:58 "Wow, US SecDef says it would take the US 7 years to build the ships needed to take on Russia at sea." Our Secretary of Defense is a drunk.
jergul large member	Fri Feb 14 01:21:21 Sammy Nope. Feel free to google if pressing x to doubt turns out to be too low information even for yourself. Murder Well, you had to scrap the whole Zeiwalt thing, so are lagging behind on destroyers. Take on means dealing with Russian subs at sea. That 7 years sounds legit, though optimistic. I don't know how many destroyer and submarine hunter killers you can actually produce given your limited shipyard capacity.
jergul large member	Fri Feb 14 01:24:26 Frankly though, it is not terribly interesting. I think we are at a "fuck around and find out" point in the war. Fair enough that seb thinks Ukraine can prevail. Revanchism and stab in the back theories will dominate until that thought is fully tested and either proven or disproven.
Seb Member	Fri Feb 14 06:02:56 Jergul: "Real incomes improved by 9% last year in Russia" According to official figures at least, there's some folks tracking proxies that suggest inflation is much higher than the 9.5% reported in December. The rubble lost about half its value against the dollar, and inflation 9.5%. Factory output is at 81% with labour shortages the main thing limiting capacity. They can't increase productivity without significant investment and Western imports. And a lot of what they are producing is going to the war effort rather than improving standards of living development and broadening the economy. What you describe looks less like a sign of strength and more like the basis for a wage price spiral.
Seb Member	Fri Feb 14 06:06:59 Jergul: "Review in a year and see how it has played out?" Europe should be looking to do whatever it takes to force Russia to agreeing status quo ante terms. If we don't we will likely face another war in Ukraine or in the Baltics in future, plus permanent period of ongoing arms build up for decades either way which will cost as much. The best way to manage this new cold war is to win it now.
Seb Member	Fri Feb 14 06:50:05 Also, framing rearmament Vs supporting Ukraine as a binary is conceptually wrong. What matters is productive capacity not just depth of inventory. We need to build a productive capacity of munitions in Europe equal or exceeding the rate needed to beat Russia in a war exactly like this one to be a deterrent. The logic after that is obvious: if Russia can't fight Europe until after it's frozen or ended Ukraine and reset; Europe can't win it it's going to try and use munitions production less than Russia's but compensate by building up a stockpile. It will be depleted in a conflict or eventually Russias stocks will surpass it. One way or another Europe needs to develop a fully "sovereign" military supply chain that can overmatch Russia in quantity and quality. Until the war ends, there's little lost in most of the output of that going straight to Ukraine. Constant production is generally good for sinking some of the required R&D and overheard costs into degrading Russian capability while the ongoing conflict presents that opportunity to do so. And it comes with a significant chance of minimising our even mitigating completely future threat.
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