Welcome to the Utopia Forums! Register a new account
The current time is Sat Oct 24 17:46:25 2020

Utopia Talk / Politics / Election predictions
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 05 23:23:23
Well, there are several issues to get a hold of.

1. The polls. Biden is up in most swing state polls.

2. How many democrats intwnd to vote by mail? Im sure there are polls on that.

3. How many of these mail in votes will not be counted, each state has different rules which seem to change weekly, clearly some will invalidated.

4. Biden has managed to get the green party off of many states but the Republicans afaik* have left the libertarians on, which could draw a few otherwise Trump voters away.
obaminated
Member
Mon Oct 05 23:39:46
Biden wins the popular vote by a lot but only wins the states hillary won because he has done nothing to win over midwest states. Trump wins the same states as him, maybe even swings Minnesota.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 05 23:42:47
why do you never mention R's aggressively trying to get Kanye (w/ his disgraceful fake campaign) on ballots when mentioning that Green/Libertarian stuff?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 05 23:44:30
did Trump bring back coal like he promised?

(& are they scrubbing it clean)
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 05 23:46:29
Kanye isn't even on thatamy ballots, is he? Nor is anyone voting for him.The acts of a mentally ill man.
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 05 23:49:21
Plus Kanye is running on a very Christian platform, pro life, pro school prayer amd a preacher for VP....
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 05 23:52:31
he's on ~9 according to some brief googling (w/ failed attempts at many others)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 05 23:54:33
& no effort is being made to let anyone know his platform
Habebe
Member
Mon Oct 05 23:56:29
That guy with a boot on his head is running too....vermin something.
Y2A
Member
Tue Oct 06 00:23:30
supreme
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Oct 06 01:35:33
[tw]: "why do you never mention R's aggressively trying to get Kanye (w/ his disgraceful fake campaign) on ballots when mentioning that Green/Libertarian stuff?"

Seems better to have more people *on* the ballot than *off*. One suppresses voter options (off), the other gives voters more options (on).

..
[Habebe]: "That guy with a boot on his head is running too....vermin something."

Vermin Supreme joined the Libertarian party and attempted to compete for the 2020 Libertarian party candidacy, but when Jo Jorgensen won he stopped his campaign. He has endorsed Jorgensen/Cohen ("A vote for @Jorgensen4POTUS
IS a vote for Vermin Supreme!" http://twitter.com/VerminSupreme/status/1312182914717638656 )

..
The voter suppression and the GOP and DNC's extra minimization of third parties really makes this a super-polarized election. I'm thinking we'll see a repeat of 2016 (Electoral College but not popular), but it's still too early. I think a lot more people will be voting Trump this time around, though. The DNC has just been *that* toxic.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 02:45:47
the debate harmed Trump, his being diseased has harmed him too

Biden landslide :p ... has to be... more & more people MUST be sick of the reality show

i was sick of it before it started
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 02:49:55
also i don't see team Trump disingenuously working to get Kanye on ballots as a positive

i'm not entirely sure Kanye even remembers he's running for president

it's all about hoping stupid people waste their vote on the musician they like or because funny
Average Ameriacn
Member
Tue Oct 06 03:32:14
Read my lips: Trump will win.

Every gun owner will vote for Trump.
Also every Christian.
Every pro lifer
Every white American.

Hillary will vote for Biden because Trump will lock her up in his second term.
Drug addicts will vote for Biden
Communists and chinks will vote for Biden.
Some people will vote twice for Biden.

But Trump will win.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 06 04:08:53
The election will be called early in the night. Florida will go by about 3 to Biden. North Carolina will be called for Biden too. The entire midwest swing states won't even be close except for Ohio.

Texas will be within 2 points either way. Arizona will be called for Biden too. Democrats win the senate by 1 or 2 seats.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 06 04:25:18
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Its hard to see Trump winning now. The covid stuff recently is not going to play well with older white voters. Biden already had a distinct advantage there before Trump tested positive.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Oct 06 04:43:28
[tw]: "it's all about hoping stupid people waste their vote on the musician they like or because funny"

No ballot cast by personal choice for any real and eligible person is a waste. And considering that Kanye would be running as a GOP candidate, it could only hurt the GOP. The GOP being okay with him running definitely says something more positive about them than the DNC not being okay with the Green Party running. It makes the DNC look like election fraudsters and the GOP look like they have a sense of humor. And the bottom line in a representative democracy is that more choice is better than less choice. The DNC is now on the record as having attempted and succeeded at removing choice from voters.

..
[tw]: "the debate harmed Trump, his being diseased has harmed him too"

Not according to the GOP. GOP commentary only thought that Trump could have done even more to make Biden look bad — like letting Biden speak more, since they consider Biden to be such a dumpster fire that more air will help him burn. They think that Biden has been hiding out to avoid screwing up, whereas forcing Biden into the public will reinforce his unlikeability. They *want* as many debates as possible.

That's why I think it's been funny seeing conspiracy theories from the DNC about Trump staging an illness so he could avoid a second debate; a second debate would *help* Trump. It speaks to GOP voters who see how biased the news has been (e.g., Chris Wallace endorsing the white supremacy "fine people" hoax; a talking point criticized by Scott Addams: http://www...0/the-fine-people-hoax-funnel/ ). Every time GOP voters see a disconnect between DNC misinformation and Trump's actual words, they have more of a resolve to turn out on or before election day (i.e., higher GOP turnout). And another debate would inevitably mean a DNC moderator calling out the supposed hypocrisy of Trump previously saying that COVID-19 was a hoax (itself a lie, which, if heard by GOP-leaners, would further their resolve even more). Trump *would* need to be healthy by then, of course.

Basically, the debates force the audience to see the weaknesses of echo chamber narratives head on, and it happens that the DNC has been lying more this time around — they have the weaker echo chamber since it refuses fact checks. That seems to be supported by the social media chambers, where DNC voters tend to refuse speaking to anyone in the GOP or anyone who even points out the hypocrisies or errors of the DNC (the mantra of "[there can be no debates with fascists/racists/sexists — and that means anyone with whom I disagree]"). This makes their cognitive dissonance a particularly fragile thing.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Oct 06 04:50:13
[Jergul]: "Its hard to see Trump winning now. The covid stuff recently is not going to play well with older white voters. Biden already had a distinct advantage there before Trump tested positive."

Oh wow, sounds like an 81% chance at winning. Unbreakable! May as well not show up!

..
"Election Update: Where The Race Stands With Three Weeks To Go"
[FiveThiryEight; October 16th, 2016]
http://fiv...stands-with-three-weeks-to-go/
"Hillary Clinton has a significant lead, although there’s some question about the margin. For instance, one major national poll released on Sunday morning, from ABC News and the Washington Post, had Clinton ahead by 4 percentage points. Another, from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, had Clinton up 11 points instead. Our forecast model falls in the middle and shows Clinton with a 6- or 7-point lead. That translates to an 86 percent chance for her to win the election according to our polls-only model, and an 83 percent chance per our polls-plus model."
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 06 04:59:04
CC
Biden is currently ahead 8 points to Clinton's 4 points in national polls.

Feel free to show up. If you do in 10 000 universes, you will have a Trump 2nd term in 2100 of them. So some happy Cherus and quite a few more sad Cows.

According to current numbers. But faith based predictions are also ok. Why not. You are simply joining the majority of Trump's base with that outlook.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 05:29:29
These polls may not factor in the mail in vote factor.

Each states rules change weekly ATM. The US Supreme Court just today ruled that they need the witness still in mail votes for example.

Now lets say the poll has Biden up 4% in a state ( national olls are useless) but 1/2 of democrats vote by mail and of that 10% of those votes do not count since they fucked up paperwork or mailed them late. That is a big factor.

Both examples should sit well with Tumbleweed who was cool with banning the greens for similar or less.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 05:56:41
Let's focus on PA for a minute.

The SC will decide if they can count mail in ballots up to 3 days aftwr the election. The state has said yes but its been appealed.

Now the polls show Biden ahead by 6% roughly ( Id bet its closer to 3-4%)

But lets go with 6% for now.

We need to find out

# of likely voters.

% by party of mail in voting.

% of a normal elections disqualified mail ballots , then estimate this year's.

Amd we start to see a.clearer picture.





Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 06:01:22
http://www.../VotingElectionStatistics.aspx

So for starters we are looking at a total of about 6 million votes.

More registered Dems than Reps, however the Reps IIRC have a lot of newly registered voters which may play into enthusiasm.
Cherub Cow
Member
Tue Oct 06 07:01:20
[Jergul]: "Feel free to show up. If you do in 10 000 universes, you will have a Trump 2nd term in 2100 of them."

Do you not know how these statistical evaluations work? And do you not realize how misguided it is to look at them as certainties when the polls themselves affect turnout? And do you not see the problem in doing so *again*, when the same errors were made in the 2016 election?

For one thing, of *course* simulating the election "40,000 times" gets them their (subjective) degree of certainty. This is similar to forecasting blackjack strategy via infinite games. Statistically, it is favorable in "infinity" blackjack games to perform certain moves, like hitting on a player's hard 16 if the dealer shows a 10-value card. People don't *like* to do this, but it's the statistically favorable move. The problem? Doing this blindly can ignore other game variables, like the card count, the amount of decks in play, one's position on the table, the decisions of other players, and even the grouping of statistical events before probability returns to its expected values (e.g., streaks).

So, in infinite games, one can observe the *appearance* of certainty, but really they observe the effects of a linear system at work; they are observing their own limited variables. Things like early poll numbers, traditional expectations, and over-extrapolated and limited data points steer them towards their expectations. However, in reality, elections are an example of nonlinear dynamics. Tiny changes can vastly change the outcome, and there is only *one* outcome; there will not be 40,000 elections — there will be only one.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 06 07:07:08
CC
Wow. You really did not get the 10k universe analogy that specifically embraces the uncertainty of outcome.

So nice strawman, but perhaps spend more time trying to understand what was written instead of messaging an argument to suit your world view.

There will be one outcome in every universe. Giving a few happy Cherubs and many sad Cows.

What is hard to grasp about that? Perhaps you will luck out and by a happy Cherub in this universe.

But the odds are not in your favour.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 06 07:09:04
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Ouch. You just lost another 100 universes.
chuck
Member
Tue Oct 06 07:19:52
> No ballot cast by personal choice for any real and eligible person is a waste. And considering that Kanye would be running as a GOP candidate, it could only hurt the GOP. The GOP being okay with him running definitely says something more positive about them than the DNC not being okay with the Green Party running. It makes the DNC look like election fraudsters and the GOP look like they have a sense of humor. And the bottom line in a representative democracy is that more choice is better than less choice. The DNC is now on the record as having attempted and succeeded at removing choice from voters.

I would call this disingenuous but it seems like you might actually believe it. I usually assume that you are arguing in good faith as opposed to trolling. I've got to wonder here though... I can't imagine the mental gymnastics it takes to look at GOP operatives running around trying to get the "Birthday Party" candidate onto the ballot and see something as wholesome as apple pie. I may loathe the people who gleefully embrace it, but I can at least come up with a plausible mental model to understand where they're coming from. I don't know what to make of this though, unless you actually slid into trolldom while I wasn't paying attention?

Voting for a candidate who isn't on enough ballots to reach 270 electoral votes is the definition of wasting a vote. The people trying to get him on as many ballots as possible - knowing he can't achieve that threshold - are not doing it for principles or humor. Like literally everything else about the GOP in 2020, it's just what you end up with when you've divorced political calculus entirely from any sort of compunction whatsoever. The fact that you look at this ploy with a totally nonviable candidate (in terms of both electoral math as well as fitness for the role) and launch into a homily on how it's actually proof of a well-functioning democracy...wow.
Pillz
Member
Tue Oct 06 07:29:37
For the first time ever, I am embarrassed for a poster here.

Fivethirtyeight? Really jergul?

I hope rugian or Renzo have the collage to post
Sam Adams
Member
Tue Oct 06 10:36:00
I got trump 180... biden 350.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Oct 06 10:46:33
Biden is currently up double digits in Arizona, land of gun toting vaccine denying fucktards.

Trump has no hope of winning short of Biden dying between now and election day(which would probably cement a Trump victory). Pro-trump campaign sign down the street was vandalized recently. The American flag on top was stolen and the sign was spray painted. Seen a handful of pro-Biden flags, which is a new development. Still more Trump flags, but its getting closer to being even.

Allegedly some of the reason that Trump did better in the actual election than the polling was that people were ashamed/fearful to identify as a pro-Trumper. I attribute their voting Trump due to Hillary-hate and suspect those same people will now vote for the very safe, very bland Joe Biden.

Trump will probably lose big in the electoral college and in the popular vote. Big enough that the legal battles some predict will be a moot point. Trump will go quietly into the night. The world will rejoice. We just have to hope Biden lives another four years and we don't have 2-3 years of Kamala Harris, President of the United States. Or worse, Harris runs for Prez in 4 years and wins, and we get 8 years of her as President.

Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 06 10:51:24
The "very safe, very bland" Joe Biden who leads the party that wants to pack the judiciary, overturn the filibuster and pack the Senate with Democratic-leaning territories, stack the administration with far-left progressives, and massively increase his own power via an unprecedented expansion of the executive branch? That "very safe, very bland" Joe?
Dakyron
Member
Tue Oct 06 10:53:16
Safe is a relative term when Trump is leading the opposition party.
Dakyron
Member
Tue Oct 06 10:54:20
Safe is also in the eye of the masses. Either way, he seems like a safer choice than HRC.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 06 11:01:46
Okay that's fair. Trump does have a perception problem, which isnt helped by his atrocious style of messaging.

Even so, I dont understand how anyone who turned into the Democratic primaries can think they represent the party of moderation.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 06 11:02:13
*tuned into
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 13:04:44
"And considering that Kanye would be running as a GOP candidate, it could only hurt the GOP."

he's on the ballot as an independent

it's about as beneficial as having a fake Donald Trunp or Joe Bidin candidate on ballot

his campaign isn't real
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 13:16:23
...& if you meant his campaign platform would appeal to GOP more, it's not like any effort being made to let people know his campaign platform (R's not helping there of course)
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 14:03:37
Kanye is a mentally ill fluke, not a GOP plot. The GOP plot is to nullify as many mail votes/Dem vites as possible.


The DNC plot is to ban any left opposition party and let loose regulations boost there vote count.
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 14:06:47
http://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3625273001

SC rules in favor of the RNC of SC.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 14:28:21
multiple GOP operatives have been seen helping Kanye get on ballots, so yeah, it's a GOP plot

i'm not saying Kanye's knows what's going on... in fact, i'm fairly confident he doesn't know what's going on (in any aspect of reality)... he's a mental patient... but he's definitely being used by GOP
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 14:33:57
what GOP operatives?
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 14:44:55
Lane Ruhland is on video dropping off Kanye signatures to get on ballot in Wisconsin (very important state)

"Ruhland has worked for Republicans for years and is listed as one of the lawyers representing the Trump campaign in a lawsuit against a local Wisconsin television station over an anti-Trump ad they aired from Democratic super PAC Priorities USA."

you think she just legitimately likes Kanye's message? (which is very difficult to find)


Kanye also met privately w/ Kushner, so maybe he IS aware (or as aware as he's capable of being)


article on various links:
http://www...e-west-s-presidential-campaign

just common sense plays a role here too...
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 14:52:52
i'd say the intimidating/fraud fundraising texts that go out for Trump are even sleazier behavior, so not like it's hard to believe they'd be helping Kanye

would be weird if they weren't
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 15:11:16
Weak case. Seems likley Kanye just used the same lawyer, as for meeting with Kushner him and Kim have both met with the president.

What I think likley happened is Kanye mwntioned something about running and Trump was like " yeah, go nuts , run with it, try this lawyer"

Not really a plot. Even at worse lets say it is a GOP plot is giving another vote option ( albeit a silly one) as bad as banning an actual political party that is striving to grow?
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 15:18:55
Now afaik, the GOP in TX is the only onw trying to kick off the libertarians, however unsuccessfully.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 15:19:03
that one lawyer is not the only link

for Colorado (in that linked story)
"
ABC reported that of Colorado's nine electors for West, four are current or former GOP operatives, including a former Colorado Republican political director.

Vice News reported that Rachel George, a GOP strategist who runs her own communications firm and had worked for Republican Sen. Cory Gardner when he was in the House, sent an email to contacts asking them to sign up to support West.

In an email obtained by Vice, George writes: "I have the most random favor to ask of you ever ... would you help me get Kanye West on the ballot in Colorado? No, I am not joking, and I realize this is hilarious."
"

does that email sound like she seriously supports Kanye?

i don't even know why you'd doubt they'd do it... there's so many garbage people in politics, plus especially those around Trump (including frequent criminals)
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 06 15:19:34
That is fucked up btw on the TX gops part.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Tue Oct 06 15:21:31
if there isn't an effort to kick off libertarians, it's just because they don't think a threat

Trump voters are mostly cultists, they will vote Trump

pretty much everyone is 'Trump' or 'not Trump'... so they'd probably be fine w/ any extra names to split up the 'not Trump' people
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 06 20:02:22
Cherub and Pillz proving themselves fucking retards. The right has gotten dumber and dumber and dumber due to believing their shit sources above anything else.
obaminated
Member
Tue Oct 06 21:27:17
How are your billions holding up, dukhat?
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 06 23:14:09
Never said billions but people like you have such a low attention to detail.
Cherub Cow
Member
Wed Oct 07 07:34:31
[Dukhat]: "Cherub and Pillz proving themselves fucking retards. The right has gotten dumber and dumber and dumber due to believing their shit sources above anything else."

It's only in the U.S.'s crazy polarized pre-election political climate that I can appear to be right-leaning, Dukhat. I'd remind you that in 2016 my Pew Research political affiliation quiz had me agreeing with Johnson, McMullin, and then Green Party at about 94% and Trump at about 13%. My complaints now come from the DNC actively doing damage to their own party and the U.S. at large. I honestly cannot believe that they have pundits like John Oliver endorsing electoral college abolition, abolition of police, supreme court and senate stacking, and voter suppression. "Only in a world this shitty could you even try to say these were innocent people and keep a straight face."

..
[Jergul]: "Wow. You really did not get the 10k universe analogy that specifically embraces the uncertainty of outcome ... There will be one outcome in every universe. Giving a few happy Cherubs and many sad Cows."

That's cute, Jergul, but my point was that your point was faulty, since there is only one *relevant* universe with one relevant outcome — not 10,000.

..
[chuck]: "I can't imagine the mental gymnastics it takes to look at GOP operatives running around trying to get the "Birthday Party" candidate onto the ballot and see something as wholesome as apple pie."

I didn't say it was "wholesome". My point was that it gives more choice, not less, so even if it's them being ridiculous or trolling ("sense of humor"), it's still more choice for voters. Choice is good. Suppressing choice is bad.

..
[chuck]: "The fact that you look at this ploy with a totally nonviable candidate (in terms of both electoral math as well as fitness for the role) and launch into a homily on how it's actually proof of a well-functioning democracy...wow."

We know already that you have an abysmal disdain for even the suggestion of third party candidates. You just repeat the everlasting U.S. prole refrains of a "wasted vote", votes that "belong" to your party, how "[this election in particular is too important to exercise choice]", and so many other social psychology bystander failures. It is no surprise that the idea of having more choice — regardless of the "absurdity" of that choice — appears "[trollish]" to you. You are Sartre's waiter — denying the existence of your choice to play a comfortable role where you act in accordance with a popular framework. In your mind — as you have already stated even before Kanye was brought up in this thread — *any* third party choice is absurd. And you think *that* is democracy? Forcing people into abandoning choice and instead submitting to corrupt partisanship? Assuming that voters do not deserve to exercise their choice because you disagree with the presence of a candidate that you dislike on the ballot?...wow.

At any rate, there's already a thread for you to complain about how no one should vote for anyone but your party and how everyone should just have your party auto-checked on the ballot by default:
"Third parties and media censorship"
[UP; August 13th, 2020]
http://www...hread=86332&time=1597614864702
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 07 12:25:16
i wish our system was different & there was a way for 3rd parties to have a chance & most importantly that they wouldn't split votes (two apples on the ballot making the less wanted orange win)

however, i don't consider Kanye a 3rd party candidate, there is no real campaign (he even says he's "walking" for president rather than running for president)

i assume he won't get many votes, but i would bet the ones he gets will be all uninformed young people, w/ 99% being in the realm of:

'hey cool, Kanye, i really like his music'
or 'lol, i voted Kanye' selfies

maybe 1% will actually know his alleged platform & think he'd be a good president? i feel like i'm being generous even in that

the electorate has a lot of poorly informed & gullible people... Kanye is just a trap placed to catch presumably mostly black or younger voters who are known to vote mostly Democrat
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 07 12:38:54
"
the electorate has a lot of poorly informed & gullible people"

Which is why we should limit the vote and not expand it.

As for 3rd parties, we sort of have coalition parties instead of coalition governments, which is weird.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 07 13:30:14
if Kanye is on, put Jesus & Matlock & Charlton Heston & Hugh Hefner & Batman etc

try to filter out people across the board
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 07 13:36:25
but a basic knowledge test would be preferable :p

to vote & be on the ballot... Trump wouldn't pass
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 07 13:45:25
a new poll:

FLORIDA: Biden 51%, Trump 40%
PENNSYLVANIA: Biden 54%, Trump 41%
IOWA: Biden 50%, Trump 45%

http://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3678

wouldn't that be nice if accurate
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 07 14:07:39
The basic knowledge test is a good idea, in practical use its impossible.
Dakyron
Member
Wed Oct 07 16:05:01
They had those. It was ruled unconstitutional. Good luck bringing them back. They will tar and feather you.
renzo marQuez
Member
Wed Oct 07 16:30:19
I've got Biden over Trump 319-219. Unless the polls are all way off, Trump is toast. He has to hope the "shy voter" is a real thing.
Y2A
Member
Wed Oct 07 19:16:28
anyone put up bets on predict it? lots of state-level bets going towards biden with these new set of polls coming out. had some money on Michigan and Minnesota that I just pulled out on the wave. if it recedes, will put some back in.
Y2A
Member
Wed Oct 07 19:26:01
things that give me a positive outlook on Biden:

(1) In terms of the average of all polls difference between R and D, he is double where HRC was at the same time in the race

(2) It is my understanding the pollsters have put more emphasis around sampling for lower levels of educational attainment in their polls to account for the error in 2016 where these demographics were undersampled.

(3) In the national polls and some important swing state polls Biden is above the 50% threshold as opposed to just beating the clown at 45-49% as HRC was

Things that give me a negative outlook on Biden

(1) Given Florida's 2018 performance and the polls there, it is too close for comfort

(2) Losing Florida wouldn't matter for me if not for Pennsylvania. I know the polling looks at least decent there but they were way off in 2016.

(3) The actual election results may not matter, if the clown loses he will invalidate the results (as was done with the popular vote in 2016) and there are plenty of radical nutcases (i.e., the Proud Boys and other such deplorables) who are ready to use violence in the aftermath.
renzo marQuez
Member
Wed Oct 07 19:31:02
I haven't. Been more focused on best ball leagues for fantasy football. They're extremely soft on Yahoo. But I've hit Yahoo's 50 league cap. Maybe I'll switch to election stuff. Out of the states at current prices, Biden in OH and IA and Trump in FL, AK, and NC are most interesting.
renzo marQuez
Member
Wed Oct 07 19:32:40
Lulz@thinking the faggot Proud Boys are a serious threat.
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 07 19:47:15
Y2a , These polls dont seen to take into account discarded votes. Votes by mail historically are discarded more than in person votes, this year, I woupd bet a higher % due to confusion and odd rules that many are not used to and back and forth legal rulings.

Then there is when counting stops at each state.
renzo marQuez
Member
Thu Oct 08 07:38:03
Possible evidence of Trump "shy voter" effect:

http://twitter.com/dancurry/status/1313992155984285697
Habebe
Member
Thu Oct 08 07:55:55
Yeah, I seen that. Not sure it hints at shy voters , just wasnt sure what to make of it.
Y2A
Member
Thu Oct 08 22:23:51
i put some money on clown no (.44c) in Iowa to sell at .54c. A couple of national polls (CNN and NBC) seem to have really pushed the market more towards biden. A couple of recent polls in Iowa have been favorable to him and maybe if we get more like that in Iowa combined with a Fox News poll in line with the shifts from the NBC and CNN polls maybe it moves that market away from the clown.
Y2A
Member
Thu Oct 08 22:38:11
looks like Fox News has a national poll out with LVs at +10 Biden (53/43).
Habebe
Member
Thu Oct 08 22:48:14
The real battle is in PA. Trump seems likely to win Florida. If he can keep Florida AND PA he has a good shot.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Oct 08 22:58:56
Trump is winning big in the Real Polls... that are so super duper secret that even the 'president' can't release them

& that doesn't sound fake & pathetic at all!
Habebe
Member
Thu Oct 08 23:07:25
Tw, Curiosity. What ia your take on many people thinking their neighbors are voting Trump?

Im not really sure what to make of that.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Thu Oct 08 23:16:12
could be people embarrassed to admit they support Trump... a reasonable feeling to have

could be people nervous Trump has more support (as he emphasizes crowd size so much, & his voters more enthusiastic about showing their support w/ all that great merch... plus they get threatened to buy merch...)


but fucking moron isn't saying the polls aren't catching his voters or whatever, just that he has 'real' polls (that he can never show) saying he's winning big... as he's a fucking liar

(kinda like how he stupidly says 'sources don't exist' instead of a more plausible lie that 'sources are lying' about news stories)
Habebe
Member
Thu Oct 08 23:55:21
I wonder if its linked to the polls showing most people still think he is going to win. I atrributed that to

1. He won against the consensus before.

2. Mabey shady tricks with vite counting or something similar.
Dukhat
Member
Fri Oct 09 01:48:40
Before a big majority thought he would wing. Now it's a slight majority. A huge portion of Biden voters think Trump will win.

But why do you think this helps Trump? Most people thought Hillary would win and that helped Trump win in 2016.

Most people thinking Trump will win in 2020 would work exactly the same but the other way around.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 09 02:14:33
Forwyn hinted at it may help Trump, but he also explained his reasoning.

I specifically did not say I thought it it would help him. Only that it may help explain why so many people think their neighbors are voting for him.

Honestly I think his best chances at winning at this exact moment.

1. Legitimate low democratic turn out in key areas like Philly.Or the opposite.Im not really sure

2. Disqualifying many mail in votes since they are according to polls to be twice as likely to be Biden votes.

Since the race in swing states is likely very close, he wouldnt need to get a huge amount disqualified. But at least enough to counter the green votes cpuld be enough to give him the edge.

habebe
Member
Fri Oct 09 07:40:15
http://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3576714001

This is exactly what Ive been talking about.

Votes being tossed, these rates they offer ( a few million) are comparing it to regular years.

Thw differwnce this time is

1. People who dont normally vote by mail are voting, so they are less knowledgeable on it.

2. The rules change weekly state to state as court judgements come in and legislatures make adjustments.

This could be a huge effect on the election outcome.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 09 08:15:38


Subscribe
Sign In
up next
More than 1 million people could lose their vote on Nov. 3. That’s the best-case scenario
PAT BEALL, USA TODAY; CATHARINA FELKE, JACKIE HAJDENBERG, ELIZABETH MULVEY AND ASEEM SHUKLA, COLUMBIA JOURNALISM INVESTIGATIONS | USA TODAY | 1 hour ago

In a normal election year in any given state, hundreds or even thousands of absentee ballots get tossed for everything from late postmarks to open envelopes.

Ad
North Carolina rejected 546 ballots for missing witness signatures in the 2012 presidential race. Virginia tossed 216 ballots in the 2018 midterms because they arrived in an unofficial envelope. Arizona discarded 1,516 ballots for nonmatching signatures the same year.

The 2020 presidential election will not be normal.

Absentee ballot rejections this November are projected to reach historic levels, risking widespread disenfranchisement of minority voters and the credibility of election results, a USA TODAY, Columbia Journalism Investigations and PBS series FRONTLINE investigation found.

A forklift operator loads absentee ballots for mailing on Sept. 3, 2020, in Raleigh, North Carolina.
A forklift operator loads absentee ballots for mailing on Sept. 3, 2020, in Raleigh, North Carolina.
GERRY BROOME/AP
At least 1.03 million absentee ballots could be tossed if half of the nation votes by mail. Discarded votes jump to 1.55 million if 75% of the country votes absentee. In the latter scenario, more than 185,000 votes could be lost in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – states considered key to capturing the White House.

Click to show more
These numbers are conservative and based on 2016 rejection rates, when fewer voters submitted absentee ballots. Record numbers of voters will be voting absentee for the first time in 2020, and voters new to vote-by-mail are at greater risk of making mistakes. If errors push the rejection rate up just 2%, about 2.15 million votes would be cast aside – roughly the population of New Mexico.

The stakes could not be higher.

Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania rejected about 60,000 votes in primaries earlier this year, said Amherst College law professor Lawrence Douglas, only a few thousand votes shy of Trump's margin of victory in those states in 2016.

“A result like this in November could cast doubt on who actually carried the key swing states, with the overall election hanging in the balance," said Douglas, who added that such an outcome could trigger "a chaotic welter of lawsuits and clashing conspiracy theories."

President Donald Trump, during the first presidential debate against Democratic nominee Joe Biden, made the unproven claim that discarded ballots are evidence that voter fraud will undermine the 2020 election.
SCOTT OLSON, GETTY IMAGES
CJI projects the three states could discard 44,499 to 66,749 votes in the presidential election.

Confusion over rules and logistical problems with mail could create "a toxic brew" in close races, said attorney Jarret Berg, co-founder of VoteEarlyNY, a nonprofit providing information on how to vote in New York. "I'm concerned about ideological bloodbath,” Berg said.

Not everyone is equally likely to lose their vote. In 2016, rejected absentee ballots fell along racial, ethnic and wealth divides. Asian-Americans in California's Santa Clara County, New York City voters in largely Black and Hispanic boroughs and Arizona voters in counties with the lowest household incomes were all more likely to have their absentee votes jettisoned in the past presidential election.

In some counties, rejected votes in November will be a small fraction of an estimated 70 million absentee ballots cast nationwide. However, even “infrequent problems could nevertheless wind up affecting substantial numbers of people," said Michael Morley, an election law expert and assistant professor at Florida State University's College of Law.

"Assume that everything goes perfectly 99.8% of the time,” Morley said. “Well, .02% of 70 million winds up being an awful lot of people."

In New Hampshire, projected absentee ballot rejections are almost 12 times the vote margin of victory that sent Democrat Maggie Hassan to the U.S. Senate in 2016. In North Carolina, Roy Cooper, also a Democrat, won the governor's seat by just over 10,000 votes – more than 8 times that number could be lost to absentee rejections this November.

Discarded ballots don’t automatically give either party an edge, as President Donald Trump has suggested. It’s true that in certain states, the number of discarded ballots could match or top Trump’s margin of victory in 2016. In Michigan, for example, 11,139 to 16,709 absentee votes could be rejected in the battleground state he won in 2016 by 10,704 votes.

But USA TODAY/CJI also projects 182,000 to 273,000 more votes could be tossed this year in counties won by Democrats during the 2016 presidential election than in counties won by the GOP.

The coming wave of absentee ballot rejections is not a result of voter fraud, USA TODAY/CJI found, but instead the byproduct of 200 million eligible voters navigating an often confusing voting process where simple mistakes can cost a vote. Further, the rules are shifting: Lawsuits are driving down-to-the-wire changes on how to vote by mail, heightening the risk that even well-informed absentee voters will turn in a defective ballot.

For months, the political groundwork has been laid to challenge vote-by-mail results. Attorney General William Barr in September wrongly claimed that 1,700 mail ballots had been fraudulently cast in Texas. Trump has decried absentee votes as fraudulent and rigged against him. In September, Trump refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power should he lose the election, citing his belief in widespread absentee ballot fraud.

U.S. Attorney General William Barr on September 9, 2020, in Chicago, Illinois.
KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/ AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Rejecting one ballot is not rejecting just one vote. Because a single ballot can have a dozen or more local and state contests, thousands of ballots rejected translates to hundreds of thousands of lost votes, said Kim Alexander, president of the nonprofit California Voter Foundation. "If this were a banking system, nobody would accept an error rate of that kind," Alexander said.

Yet widespread ballot rejection is not inevitable, say election officials, voting advocates and academics.

Election officials in almost every state cited missed deadlines for the majority of rejections in 2012, 2016 and 2018. Voters concerned over slow postal delivery may be able to put their ballot in a dropbox or bring it to the local election office, depending on state rules. Also working in voters' favor: Since 2016, new laws and court orders have led multiple states to offer voters a chance to fix ballot errors such as missing signatures, mismatched signatures and other procedural problems.

Local elections officials want to help.

"It's never a warm feeling to have to reject a ballot," said Ingham County, Michigan, clerk Barb Byrum.

Local rejections may decide presidency
Absentee rejections are projected to flood states featuring fierce political battlegrounds, according to CJI's analysis. Home to Las Vegas, Clark County, Nevada, is expected to discard 6,126 to 9,190 ballots. New Orleans' parish rejected 285 in the last presidential contest – this year, the number could pass 3,000.

North Carolina expects no more than three in 10 will vote absentee, lowering rejected ballots to roughly 37,000 – below CJI projections but thousands higher than the 4,800 discarded ballots in the last presidential election. If the rate of discarded ballots also grows, it could be "astronomical,” said Alissa Ellis, advocacy director of Democracy North Carolina.

Philadelphia County had three times Pennsylvania's rejection rate in the 2016 presidential election, all but one tossed for lacking a voter's signature. That involved just 461 absentee ballots. The county is projected to reject up to 14,682 absentee ballots this November.

Last month, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court handed down a decision that could dramatically raise the number of rejected ballots in Philadelphia County to as much as 40,000, estimated Philadelphia City Commission chair Lisa Deely. Voters put their absentee ballot into a "privacy" envelope and then put that envelope into another envelope to be mailed. If they forget and use one envelope, their vote now won't be counted – a common mistake, Deely said.

"People just don't think about putting one envelope inside another envelope. It's just not something you do,” Deely said.

She warned of “electoral chaos” in November if state lawmakers don't address the issue. "It's just not fair to throw out a vote because of a technicality," she said.

Wisconsin elections are often decided by razor-thin margins: It was considered a tipping-point state in 2016, giving Trump a victory margin there of just 22,748 votes. The state could lose 2,387 to 3,580 votes in November, CJI found, far below that threshold.

But Wisconsin’s rate of rejection more than tripled in their April primary – held amid COVID-19 – compared with 2016's general election. Though it was a much smaller election, more than 23,000 ballots were tossed.

Milwaukee resident Jennifer Taff holds a sign as she waits in line to vote at Washington High School in Milwaukee during the April primary. “I’m disgusted. I requested an absentee ballot almost three weeks ago and never got it. I have a father dying from lung disease and I have to risk my life and his just to exercise my right to vote." She said she had been in line for almost two hours.
PATRICIA MCKNIGHT, MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL
"I think any rejected ballot is a travesty. We don't want any legitimate voter to have their ballot go uncounted because of an administrative mishap, a missing signature, a slow mail delivery," said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison who analyzed Wisconsin absentee data.

"But there's a secondary concern, which is the number of rejected ballots is large enough that it could affect the outcome of the election," Burden said.

Rejection rates could also fall from 2016 levels, particularly if voters are allowed to fix certain errors before their vote is discarded. Georgia Deputy Secretary of State Jordan Fuchs said absentee rejection rates plummeted to roughly 1% in the recent primary because of post-2016 rules making it easier for voters to address those problems. Of 110,000 absentees cast for November, 40 have been rejected, he said.

Louisiana, which adopted provisions to fix errors similar to Georgia’s, estimates about 20,000 of roughly 200,000 absentee ballots could be discarded, below the CJI projection of 32,000. "We hope your numbers are high," said Tyler Brey, spokesman for the secretary of state. "We hope we can bring it down to zero."

Greatest impact on minority, lower income voters
Milwaukee Rev. Greg Lewis risks more than most if he votes in person this November.

For much of March, COVID-19 confined the 62-year-old to a hospital bed. "Four or five or six people who I knew, they died while I was in the ICU," he said. "I shouldn't even be here."

But Lewis understands why Black voters like himself, who have long opted to vote in person, may head to the polls rather than vote absentee, despite the risk of COVID-19. “There’s mistrust of the system," said Lewis, founder of the clergy-based get-out-the vote effort Souls to the Polls. "People don’t think their votes are going to get counted,”

USA TODAY/CJI research found that in certain counties and states, voting absentee put communities of color at a disadvantage in 2016, a racial divide especially troubling given expected high turnout this November among minority groups.

Combined, North Carolina counties with the largest percentage of Black residents rejected ballots at sharply higher rates than the rest of the state that year. Local election supervisors reported 7 of every 10 votes rejected in those counties were for fixable problems, such as missing witness signatures. But until an August court ruling, North Carolina did not have to notify voters and give them a chance to correct minor errors. It's not certain voters will get the relief. As of Oct. 8 – less than a month before Election Day – the fate of North Carolina election policy remains tied up in court.

In New York, an absentee ballot cast in heavily minority Bronx, Queens, Kings and New York counties was greater than two times more likely to get rejected in 2016 compared with New York state as a whole. In Nevada counties with the largest percentage of Hispanic residents, an absentee vote was 2.2 times more likely to be rejected in 2016 than in counties that were less than 20% Hispanic. New Jersey, Louisiana, Georgia and Nevada all had higher rejection rates in majority-minority counties.

Counting ballots at the Passaic County, New Jersey Board of Elections
RICHARD COWEN, NORTHJERSEY.COM
Living in wealthier counties could mean the difference between getting an absentee vote counted or discarded in certain states. As a group, voters in Pennsylvania counties where family income topped $50,000 were twice as likely to have their absentee ballot counted. In Wisconsin, it was voters in counties where household incomes topped $45,000 that had double the chance of having their ballot accepted. A similar pattern repeated in Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.

Nationally, counties where the poverty rate was less than 1% also had a rejection rate of less than 1% in the last presidential election. But in counties where more than three of every 10 residents lived in poverty, the percentage of uncounted absentee ballots tripled.

"It's kind of a luxury to be able to put something in the mail. Some people may say, 'Oh, well, what do you mean, you don't you just put it in your mailbox and stick the red flag up?' That's assuming I have a mailbox," said Rev. Charles Williams, the Midwestern regional director of the civil rights organization National Action Network.

Post-election focus could be on signatures
An apparently mismatched signature is not the most common cause of reported ballot rejections. But it is the only ballot rejection category based on a best guess, and for that reason, the one expected to trigger post-election scrutiny.

"It is rife with uncertainty and one where all sides are lawyering up," said Gregory Miller, co-founder of The OSET Institute, whose TrustTheVote Project began focusing on absentee voting last January.

Comparing a voter’s signature on a ballot to their signature on official documents, such as voter registration, is one way to guard against fraud. Verifying a signature typically requires a ballot-by-ballot examination and a judgment call by a panel or election officials. Training varies not just from state to state but in some cases from county to county.

Stress, the type of pen used, whether a voter frequently signs their name and age can all affect any one signature. President George H.W. Bush's signature in 1972, for instance, is noticeably different from his signature when in the White House just 13 years later.

Millennials and Gen-Xers have less experience signing paper documents, and in California they have been "much more likely to have their ballots rejected for bad signatures than older voters," said the California Voting Foundation's Alexander. "They're not used to providing a signature for verification purposes. And many of them are never even taught cursive in school anymore."

William Gilligan, 83, is comfortable with paper but has had two strokes. He’s a plaintiff in a Pennsylvania lawsuit challenging signature verification and said he “does not believe he could reliably sign his name the same way each time he does so.”

Susan Avery, of Brattleboro, Vt., casts her vote for Democrat presidential candidate, Joe Biden, while filling out her November election ballot that she received in the mail on Monday, Sept. 28, 2020.
KRISTOPHER RADDER, THE BRATTLEBORO REFORMER VIA AP
Some local elections officials are using signature verification software. But a Stanford Law School study showed that in California, without “human review, automation increases the rejection rate by 1.7 points – a 74% increase for the average rejection rate."

Minority voters in California, Florida and Arizona have been hit hard by signature questions. In Florida, seven of every 10 absentee votes tossed for mismatched signatures in the last presidential contest were in heavily Hispanic counties. A 2017 study of four California counties found that Asian-Americans' absentee votes were disproportionately discarded because of mismatched signatures. And in a lawsuit in August, the Navajo Nation cited high rates of discarded votes based on signature mismatches.

Given the expected surge of absentees, even the best trained elections worker is more likely to make mistakes, said Eddie Perez, OSET's Director of Technology Development & Open Standards. "It comes down to how many hours a day can someone with weary eyes do this work."

Why ballots get rejected
Even before COVID-19 triggered more than 140 absentee-related lawsuits over how and whether a person can vote by mail, voters had to navigate an often confusing patchwork of requirements that differ from state to state.

Wisconsin requires a witness. Alabama had required two witnesses or a notary, a rule that is now being challenged in court. People who helped mail a voter's ballot have risked fines in Connecticut and felony charges in Texas.

"There are all those little rules," said Jan Combopiano, a member of the Executive Committee of the Brooklyn Voters Alliance. "We call it voter suppression by process."

Stephanie Rushing, an election service coordinator with the City of Milwaukee Election Commission, counts ballots as workers were processing absentee ballots cast during the April primary on April 13, 2020 in Milwaukee.
MIKE DE SISTI, MILWAUKEE JOURNAL SENTINEL
During the 2020 Milwaukee primary, people who most needed to isolate – the elderly and ill – were also required to bring someone into their home to verify their ballot, said Neil Albrecht, outgoing executive director of the Milwaukee Election Commission.

“People would call us in tears because they were so concerned about having someone come into their house and sign their absentee ballot as a witness,” Albrecht told Frontline.

“And rather than place themselves at risk, by bringing someone into their home, to sign as a witness to their absentee ballot, they sent those absentee ballots in without a witness signature," Albrecht said. "And many of those absentee ballots then ended up being rejected.”

Other hurdles have nothing to do with paperwork. In their August lawsuit, the Navajo Nation argued that the Arizona portion of their sprawling 13-million-acre reservation has just 11 post offices. It takes 10 days for a ballot sent from Apache County to get to the Phoenix elections office. Meanwhile, ballots mailed from Scottsdale would take 18 hours.

In Nevada, nine of 14 reservation and colony lands have no post office at all.

Many states are planning on drastically different elections this year and mail-in ballots could be a big game changer.
JUST THE FAQS, USA TODAY
Voters must know their state’s rules
With roughly 340 voters, the Town of Colby, Wisconsin, exemplifies why ballot rejection rates in densely populated counties are higher than in more rural counties. If a voter there has a problem, Town Clerk Theoline Ludwig will drive to their home and help.

“Anybody who's got an issue calls my home number, and if they really got an issue they come to my house," she said. "Absentee voting is done in my house.”

Larger counties facing an avalanche of ballots do not have the luxury of such one-on-one attention. COVID-19, which is driving the rise of absentee voting, has also prompted officials to redirect money needed to educate first-time absentee voters about how to get their vote counted.

A person drops applications for mail-in-ballots into a mail box in Omaha, Neb. U.S. Postal Service warnings that it can’t guarantee ballots sent by mail will arrive on time have put a spotlight on the narrow timeframes most states allow to request and return those ballots.
NATI HARNIK, AP
After the Utah Legislature slashed $250,000 from the elections office budget this summer, money for educational postcards and voter information pamphlets dried up, said Justin Lee, that state's director of elections. This summer, the Arizona Legislature zeroed out money the secretary of state had budgeted to fight disinformation.

"I would love to have billboards, but that’s expensive," said Deidre B. Holden, supervisor of elections and voter registration in Paulding County, Georgia. "Do I spend money on that, or do I hire someone to get through thousands of absentee ballots?"

Educating voters on how to cast an absentee ballot is a moving target. Local elections officials are scrambling to keep up with absentee ballot lawsuits over everything from the number of dropboxes to ballot design. In a single day, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court extended mail deadlines, authorized dropboxes and ruled election boards did not have to tell voters their ballots had fixable problems.

"The biggest issues that are up in the air right now will be what additional changes federal courts might make," said Forrest Lehman, Lycoming County, Pennsylvania, elections director. "Say one of the courts changes the ballot deadline again, it's going to be almost impossible to get correct information out."

In North Carolina, rules shift virtually every year.

“A law will get halfway implemented, then get enjoined by the courts, then a more refined law will get struck down, and it leaves us in limbo,” said Democracy North Carolina senior researcher Sunny Frothingham. “Voters call us and they don’t know if ID is required, they don’t know about early voting.”

In states where the election is already underway, absentee rejections have begun piling up along with early votes. That only underscores the value of early absentee voting, said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political science professor whose United States Election Project tracks rejected ballots.

"You see this in the data, where people who had their ballots sent earlier are more likely to have them accepted than the ones coming in later," McDonald said. "It gives the election official and you the time to fix whatever problem there might be.”

Some counties and states offer ballot tracking software that allows a voter to watch their vote get delivered to the election office. If the election date is close, McDonald suggests taking the ballot to a dropbox or to the local election office – after first calling that office to make sure it's acceptable.

Long lines of people wait outside of the Cuyahoga County Board of Elections to participate in early voting Tuesday in Cleveland.
TONY DEJAK/AP
For those who haven't submitted ballots, there may still be time to recheck and update registration records to reflect a name change from marriage, or an address change, said Anne Houghtaling, deputy director of the NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund's Thurgood Marshall Institute. Filling out a ballot early also provides time to make sure that signatures haven't been overlooked and that every line has been filled out.

“There are a lot of T's to cross and I's to dot," Houghtaling said. "But if you believe in the fundamental promise of our democracy, of one man, one vote, then we need to do everything to ensure that people entitled to that vote, get it."
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 12:51:08
requiring a witness signature is retarded

way to go critical state Wisconsin...
Rugian
Member
Fri Oct 09 13:12:04
"Basic verification systems to defend the integrity of the election that determines who gets access to the nuclear codes is retarded" - tw

Also tw: "you should be required to pass a background check every time you want to exercise your 2nd Amendment rights"

I hate leftist logic.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 13:14:40
because frauding a witness signature would be so hard for someone willing to fraud the main signature

is just an obstacle for legit voters
Rugian
Member
Fri Oct 09 13:19:28
"is just an obstacle for legit voters"

Only for complete shut-ins. Which admittedly is probably a legitimate concern for your Trump-stalking ass.
Dukhat
Member
Fri Oct 09 13:19:57
God rugian is such a sad little incel. He can’t even tell how absurd he sounds to any rational person.

Right-wing echo chamber mind rot.
Rugian
Member
Fri Oct 09 13:22:44
How's the ol' portfolio doing Dukhat? I see the Dow is at +140 today, so you must be up by like $200 million or so.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 13:30:27
seems like not having a witness signature is the main problem w/ ballots (do people even check anything about the witness, i wonder)

which likely includes people not realizing necessary, as an extra signature line usually is related to minors or people needing assistance

a fraudster has no reason to leave it blank, thus all legit voters getting screwed probably
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 16:57:19
pointlessly long line for a drop box in Ohio:

(video stops being tilted 8 secs in)
http://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1314666560892608513

heavily limiting drop box locations yet another R ploy
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 09 18:15:40
When mail in voting is minimal like normal, I doubt its an issue really. I also doubt it does much to prevent fraud.

I'd lost any notion in election integrity a long time ago.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 09 19:32:04
TW , So what exactly is the argument against witnesses at poll sites? Like I get the signature shit, it likely does little to avoid fraud and can invalidate some.votes.

But shouldn't we want witnesses to voting? I seen in PA the judge just shutdown Trumps attempt to have witnesses for early votes.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 23:32:31
for starters, they aren't polling sites, that's why rejected

also of note, Trump didn't have any registered poll watchers (which presumably has some kind of training), this was just a random Trump person/people who were kicked out... what productive activity are they going to be doing?

i didn't read the arguments or judge ruling... i can't imagine having every Trump supporter who wants to go watch voters would lead to anything useful (plus there's a pandemic)
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Fri Oct 09 23:56:01
are you at all bothered at Trump working his hardest to convince the world that our entire election system is total fraud from in-person to mail-in voting?

complete w/ misrepresenting news stories, or just making up total bullshit like his repeated concern that Dem run states might not send ballots to R voters... does ANYONE else have that concern?

do NOT vote an anti-American piece of shit delusional lying fraud
habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 00:42:59
My concern is that this will wxtend past this election. Im not convinced its one sided ( there go those equivelancies again)

Off topic but whats up with Yang? Will he be active in a Biden Administration? I doubt Tulsi will, I feel like she is going to start a podcast or run for Governor.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Sat Oct 10 01:38:24
"Im not convinced its one sided"

is this about the one comment by non-participant Hillary? weighed vs multiple daily comments by the 'president' for months...


i don't know about Yang (& agree Tulsi not likely to be anything)
Habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 02:21:54
Its so much more than just HRCs comments, which IIRC she repeated several times.

Its the Green party spats,

its the legal cases to loosen restrictions-Let me ask you this, would they ease restrictions like signatures, when ballots could be sent etc. If they didnt think it would help them? They are not doing this out of respect for the process.

How about all the times high level Democrats will say that Trump/reps are trying to steal the election, or he wont leave office, the military will kick him out.... How does this behaviour enforce confidence in elections?
Habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 02:24:07
Tulsi, I actually think has a real respect for the process.And I support most of her ballot protection act, like making election day a holiday, having a physical paper backed copy of your ballot.
Dukhat
Member
Sat Oct 10 02:28:14
Tulsi is a Russian plant. Which is why cuckservatives love bringing her up as a "democrat they can vote for."
habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 02:52:41
Dukhat proves he is a Hillary toadie.

There is literally no evidence at all linking her to muh Russia.Unfounded conspiracy theories in par with that Q shit.
Habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 03:02:49
"They're also going to do third party again. And I'm not making any predictions but I think they've got their eye on somebody who is currently in the Democratic primary and are grooming her to be the third party candidate. She's the favorite of the Russians. They have a bunch of sites and bots and other ways of supporting her so far, and that's assuming Jill Stein will give it up. Which she might not, 'cause she's also a Russian asset."

Plouffe: (Inaudible)

Clinton: "Yeah, she's a Russian asset, I mean, totally.

----------

And some people think she was the more sane and truthful one last election.

Keep in mind declassified documents have shown that Obama was braided that HRC was making this stuff up to take attention away from her emails.
Forwyn
Member
Sat Oct 10 04:19:47
"Tulsi is a Russian plant."

Lol, Cuckhat regurgitates Vox and shits on a decorated combat vet because she had the audacity to go against chicken hawk Democrats on Syria.

Then he'll say, "Who the hell cares about that shithole"

Lol Cuckhat
Dukhat
Member
Sat Oct 10 09:38:25
The total weight of evidence says she’s a russian asset. And Hillary has been right way more than Trump has been. Trump’s clearly an asset too but you guys are too dumb to notice. Basically giving Russia exactly what they want at every turn.
Habebe
Member
Sat Oct 10 09:49:05
"The total weight of evidence says she’s a russian asset."

What evidence? Jill stein too?
TJ
Member
Sat Oct 10 09:57:23
Trump 2020!
show deleted posts
Bookmark and Share