Welcome to the Utopia Forums! Register a new account
The current time is Sat Oct 24 17:44:18 2020

Utopia Talk / Politics / All things US election 2020
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 13 01:33:48
figured we could use this. A lot of times I just post shit to Tumbleweeds the crazy shit Trump says #272.

Ive notice an uptick in Trumpers trying to bring back the Biden is senile bit.

To me he obviously appears so. But I have to give credit where credit is due, his campaign has taken the focus off of that to the point its been a non issue for a few weeks.
Dukhat
Member
Tue Oct 13 03:09:30
LoL. Biden destroyed Trump in the debates because they pushed the Senile bit so hard. It only makes Trump look like more of a fucking retard and he looked super fucking retarded that debate.
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 13 04:36:45
How do you figure Trump is not senile by what comes out of his mouth or tweets?

jergul
large member
Tue Oct 13 05:06:47
How are Trump rallies not going to bite him in the ass? Contract tracing is a thing. It is extremely likely we will see sobstories of people sick or dead from superspreader rallies.
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 13 06:48:00
Dukhat, How are you so wrong all the time? your like the guy who bets against the Harlem globe trotters. Try some real critical thinking, instead of re hashing talking points.

Jergul, Egomania is senile.Trump routinely seems accutly aware of things.
patom
Member
Tue Oct 13 07:39:35
LMAO, Trump at rally says he wants to kiss everyone attending. I wonder how many lined up to take a chance that he's not contagious.
habebe
Member
Tue Oct 13 07:57:25
Any info on enthusiasm to vote.

I know that there is little enthusiasm for Biden, and Trumps is high. But I think it best to compare enthusiasm to vote agaunst Trump compared to enthusiasm to vote for.
Rugian
Member
Tue Oct 13 08:29:08
Democrat Proposing To His Girlfriend Says He Won't Reveal Position On Adultery Until After The Wedding

October 12th, 2020

WASHINGTON, D.C.—According to anonymous sources, local liberal man Penn Millikers proposed to his girlfriend but has refused to reveal his position on adultery until after the wedding is over.

The staunch Democrat said he wants the woman to marry him but won't reveal his position on adultery until the marriage is finalized.

"Listen, I love you, babe, but you don't deserve to know what I think about adultery until you say 'I do,'" he told her during a romantic dinner just after he proposed.

"No matter how many times his girlfriend asked, Millikers refused to give a straight answer," said the anonymous source. "He said something like: 'Lookie here, Jill! If I tell you right now whether or not I plan to remain faithful to you, that would become the story! This is just a distraction! I think it's better to just get married first with no prenup. Then I'll tell you what I plan to do.'"

Other things he refuses to reveal his position on include taking showers, putting socks in the hamper, going out drinking with the boys every night, and watching sports all day while he ignores his family.

"You'll find out my positions on these issues once we are married."

http://bab...nt-reveal-position-on-adultery
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 13 10:31:48
And a Republican surrogate mother just refused to tell her position on abortion saying "give me the check and semen sample. We will see how it plays out".
jergul
large member
Tue Oct 13 10:55:31
The liberal man just confirmed he is not a fan of adultery btw.
obaminated
Member
Tue Oct 13 17:56:06
Im not a fan of black women, doesnt mean i wouldn't spit roast beyonce if given the chance.
Habebe
Member
Tue Oct 13 17:57:26
I fucks with darkmeat.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 14 02:07:53
"Two senior campaign officials said the Trump operation needs more money to run TV ads and is playing defense in many states. Bill Stepien has said that they need to be careful with money because there are so many states where the campaign needs it."

http://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1316214645615521792

multiple articles have noted his cutback on ad buys (& obviously he won't spend his own money... as he doesn't have any...)

so with all polls showing Biden winning & Dems winning in fundraising, hopefully people will accept it if Biden wins

& ignore Trump's claims that he can only lose if fraud, & that crowd sizes prove he's winning, & that all his secret polls show him winning big...
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 03:31:45
"so with all polls showing Biden winning & Dems winning in fundraising, hopefully people will accept it if Biden wins"

Very possibly. Both camps have their believability of winning.

Biden has the polls and Trump.has peoole thinking he is going to win no matter what thebpolls say again.
jergul
large member
Wed Oct 14 04:13:45
The pollsters are pretty sure they are getting it right this time. 538 has an article on it. Note also that 538 automatically deducts Biden polls with something it calls the advantage of incumbancy.

The Senate polls are more uncertain because there are less of them. But Graham came across as really scared at the hearing. He has updated poll data from after Trump got sick.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 05:16:37
538 has also stated that while hope the polls ate more accurate this year that state polls are less reliable. They are the ones that matter.

I personally think polls will be less reliable than 16. My reasoning is that none of these polls factor in How many votes will not be counted due to legal/technical issues. And many states keep changing the rules on top of an unprecedented amount of mail in votes.

So thenpolls could more accurate in likley.voters and still fall.short because they are not factoring in uncounted votes.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Oct 14 09:17:32
"I personally think polls will be less reliable than 16."

Are you sure it's not because, if the polls are accurate, your hero the orange Cheeto is going to lose?
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 09:49:13
Woo, If Biden wins, its.nombig loss to me.

But lets be frank. There id a huge difference in voting behaviour this year, mail in ballots.

We know this not just from polls that say huge amounts of people plan to vote by mail but by actual request of mail in ballots being higher than ever recorded.

Now its common knowledge that mail in ballots are discarded on a higher % , that number Is guess is usually about the same %.

However this year is different for several reasons.

1. Many people mail in voting are not regular mail in voters and may be less familiar with the rules.For example in PA the naked ballot issue.

2. The rules seem to be changing every week in several states. Ballot harvesting rules, witness signatures, special envelopes, when ballots start to be counted or end ballot counting etc.

Witness signatures in my state have seen rules.changes 3 times in like 2 weeks.

All of these issues lead me to beleive there is likely to be many more invalidated ballots than even the usual amounts.

Polls do not factor this into account.

Then there is the shaky ground of the young voter turnout which is diffiucult to pinpoint every year it seems. We will have to see if hatres of Trump will motivate them to turnoit in high numbers like they did to Barack.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Oct 14 10:19:57
And that the orange Cheeto would lose.
jergul
large member
Wed Oct 14 10:26:05
Are there Cheetos in any other colour?
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Oct 14 10:53:36
The Fiery Cheetos are more red.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 10:54:27
I think they make white cheddar Cheetos... I know they make jalepeno, but they are also orange.
jergul
large member
Wed Oct 14 11:07:31
ok, I will remember to specify the colour next time I talk about cheetos.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 11:11:40
meh , I think we all associate cheetos with orange.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Oct 14 13:30:09
It is a little redundant, but it also stresses the point that no human should be that color.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 13:33:16
Trump is clearly an android who's software went haywire.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Wed Oct 14 13:49:31
Sadly, no. He's just a very prominent example of the retardation that is running rampant in the US.
habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 14:05:30
Vancpuver Island looks really nice.
jergul
large member
Wed Oct 14 15:41:44
Georgia just flipped blue

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 15:56:10
It just takes me to the 538 main page.

Could be my phone though. Chrome has been acting jewish, cant watch videos either. Probably gonna switch to Firefox again.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Wed Oct 14 15:57:26
worked ok for me... scroll down to a winding path graphic

Iowa & Texas next to fall *fingers crossed*
Rugian
Member
Wed Oct 14 16:00:34
"Georgia just flipped blue"

Correction: 538 thinks Georgis just flipped blue.

It's an important distinction. 538 has a poor track record as of late.
Habebe
Member
Wed Oct 14 16:08:16
I want to just reset my chrome to standard settings. Its actimh all screwy.
obaminated
Member
Thu Oct 15 17:14:49
Why does harris laugh after she answers a question? Was she told it makes her seem more accesible when she doesnt answer the question?
Dukhat
Member
Thu Oct 15 22:33:41
"538 has a poor track record as of late."

Says the guy who has no understanding of statistical analysis and probabilistic models at all.

It's been highly accurate but your brains just discount anything actually credible because you've been guzzling that Trump cum.

Also your father is still dead. You stupid, fat fuck.
obaminated
Member
Thu Oct 15 22:52:22
Lol, cuckhat still hitting below the belt.

Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 16 06:45:19
Here is the problem with 538.

Its not that they have a bad model, however it is lacking IMHO what is one of the biggest issues of this election.

But that their source material is weak. They themselves rank polls. Even if you go by their rankings they use way more c and b ranked polls and may throemin one A quality poll. And as Nate will admit he uses the polls that are more readily available.

But if you have shit going in, you will have shit coming out.

I actually like 538, and watch most of the podcasts and Nate Silver and Claire.Malone are my favorite of the group as they tend to be less overtly bias.

I think real feel of the country is closer to what it was in 2016 with a slightly more Biden lean than Hillary.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 16 06:48:58
I do feel bad for Scully from.CSPAN.

The guy is extremely good at behaving in a neutral and nin bias manner.As is the standard for CSPAN. The horrible tweet he posted was nothing horrible at all. He panicked afterwards.He posted " Should I respond to Trump?"

But he panicked and lied about being hacked. CSPAN backed him on being hacked. I didnt think he would stoop so loow as to claim being hacked. Sad story.
Habebe
Member
Fri Oct 16 07:01:48
What leaves me with such a strong preference to Trump over the left is the their hatred of anything fair and equal.

This is a perfect example, they were horrified that Trump would have a competing townhall. Even when Biden had a big supporter hosting his and Trump had the opposite.

These arw the kids who grew up thinking their participation trophies were equal to winning. They habe an immediate gut reaction to push for unequal, rigged any and everything.Thats not the America or even the Amwrican Left I grew up with.
habebe
Member
Sun Oct 18 09:26:48
So its looking like NC and PA are the big 2 to watch. NC in Senate race as well.
habebe
Member
Sun Oct 18 09:32:07
I feel Fla is a safe bet, it's a crazy uncle sort of state.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Oct 18 09:58:37
They were never terrified that Trump would have a competing town hall. They were pissed that NBC put it at the same time. They should've been one after the other either way.
jergul
large member
Sun Oct 18 11:06:09
Florida is by a stretch of imagination in toss-up territory (though actually democrat).

Pensylvania is the one to watch. Not because it is a likely GOP win, but because it is a likely tipping point state.

Habebe
Member
Sun Oct 18 11:16:37
I see Trump taking Fla easily.

NC, PA Are the ones to watch.

Followed by Michigan and AZ which seem to favor Biden
Habebe
Member
Sun Oct 18 11:38:36
Trump does have to fight against two 3rd party candidates t h at could garner up to 3% of the vote, not massive but even safe states are often within such a margin.
Dukhat
Member
Sun Oct 18 13:03:14
Biggest threat to the Dems is the fact that they were still registering voters while Biden's campaign was social distancing. They've netted about 50-100k registered republicans in most swing states.


That being said, Trump has bled support across all voting groups including the white working class. He won them by 3 to 1 against Hillary but It's down to 3:2 against Biden which is a huge swing.
Habebe
Member
Sun Oct 18 13:08:48
I bet your wife has a huge swing.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 19 21:02:59
http://www...0d10_story.html?outputType=amp

And Biden just likley won the election with this court ruling.

Final answer, locking it in. Biden wins.
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 19 21:02:59
http://www...0d10_story.html?outputType=amp

And Biden just likley won the election with this court ruling.

Final answer, locking it in. Biden wins.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 19 21:18:40
ballots had already gone out and say just need mailed by election day (and received by Friday) so would've been crazy to change it

...but Trump can still try to continue corrupting the post office and get delivery delayed past Friday
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 19 21:21:31
Trump wasnthe weirdest support

Kanye /Kim
Kristine Allie
50 cent
Kid Rock

The Taliban
Israel
Evangicals

If you had listed these all together 5 years ago and said they all support the Same potus candidate , no one would have beleived you.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 19 21:25:51
I think Biden just won the election by the strikingly significant chance that American will see its president rage impotently into a dead microphone in a few days.

Anyone think Trump has the discipline to systematically remember his mic has been turned off?
habebe
Member
Mon Oct 19 21:32:59
Biden won when he won a.slew.of court cases over PA Ballots.
jergul
large member
Mon Oct 19 21:40:44
Hang in there buddy. I am sure the GOP will find other ways to not count cast ballots.
tumbleweed
the wanderer
Mon Oct 19 21:50:41
which court decision seemed unfair?

team Trump is known for bullshit lawsuits, the fact he lost all doesn't mean anything was unfair to him
show deleted posts

Your Name:
Your Password:
Your Message:
Bookmark and Share