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Utopia Talk / Politics / Vaccines VII: return of Mothra
habebe
Member
Thu Apr 15 18:28:57
JJ now has a 1 in a million chance of bad side effects....

Fun spat between "disease specialist" and Nate Silver...she claimed he wasnt qualified to comment on it. But this sounds like to me putting climate scientists in charge of economic policy involving CC...
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 15 20:03:12
http://www...cess/ar-BB1fH5sI?ocid=BingNews

So more evidence that the Chinese vaccines being sold are shit, like everything else from China, poor quality.
obaminated
Member
Thu Apr 15 21:43:11
Shockingly unshocking
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 15 22:05:47
http://the...ely-needed-within-12-months-of

In an odd twist, Jergul may soet pf kind of be partly right.

Pfizer says a 3rd dose vaccinne is likely. So, of we go by those standards the US may not benfully vaccinated on schedule.....bit still far ahead of the EU.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 16 00:03:04
Nah, the fact that some immunity is lost over a year doesnt change the fact that the US will be vaxed now.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 16 00:18:15
"So more evidence that the Chinese vaccines being sold are shit"

Yikes. 55% effective after 2 doses? Even sebs astrazenca isnt that bad.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 02:49:22
Habebe
I was not thinking of booster shots, so even an early need would not make me correct.

Other things are making me right, like the Norwegian FDA validating that certain vaccines are more dangerous than the risk of covid in Norway.

Or say the UK vaccination rates dropping before 50% partially vaccinated.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 02:52:22
The risk of covis in Norway while on lockdown?
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 03:03:38
I dunno, I will ask my mates when have a few beers at the pub later today.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 03:06:53
We don't have lockdowns like you do habebe. We lock down locally if there are local infections.

You can to that when contact tracing works and you have a good picture of what communities are infected.

Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 03:10:57
How do you think the US lockdown went? Nationally?
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 03:21:26
They went really poorly. Many of you died and continue to die.
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 16 04:41:06
Jergul:
UK slow down is due to supply constraints, not demand issues.

Will increase again shortly unless there is more bad news on the supply front.
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 04:47:03
Seb
Israel also slowed down just past the 50 mark. Its a natural thing.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 05:04:44
The US finally made it to 1% daily!
TheChildren
Member
Fri Apr 16 05:20:06
"Yikes. 55% effective after 2 doses? Even sebs astrazenca isnt that bad. "

we all know chinese vaccines are da best.

100% effective biotch. efficacy isnt same as effective. OWNED

better than pfizer.

and btw this is brazilian variant.
pfzier has no effect on for example south african variant. OWNED OWNED OWNED
TheChildren
Member
Fri Apr 16 05:40:24
so it looks like usa is stealbuyin all vaccines from germany and belgium and other euros for itself.

to use on its own country while fuckin over da rest of da world.

rofl owned owned owned
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 16 08:57:58
Jergul:

I can't comment on Israel. Specifically for the UK, it's a supply issue. As in we had to cancel a bunch of appointment slots at the vaccination centres.
Pillz
Member
Fri Apr 16 11:47:46
US deaths per million significantly lower then most of Europe. Dunno what jergul is smoking
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 16 12:05:32
Got my second pfizer. Woohoo!
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 12:45:08
Current death tolls per million really vary. The UK has 2, super low.

Sweden is on par with the US (12-13)

France and Italy are around 30.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 12:46:34
http://www...dwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Italy is actually about 40 (39 and change)
Rugian
Member
Fri Apr 16 12:50:08
This is the first time I've seen the "fully vaccinated" number increase faster than the "at least one dose" figure.


April 16:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 38.5% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 24.3% (+0.7%)
jergul
large member
Fri Apr 16 18:09:16
hababe
odd that you did not cite Norway's number.

Ruggy
Well, duh. How do you think you will peak below 50% without injecting children with emergency use authorization vaccines?
Rugian
Member
Fri Apr 16 19:20:19
jergul -

It's more due to more people getting their second doses than to any decline of people getting their first dose.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 19:54:47
Jergul, 4.3

Double the UK about 1/3 of the US or Sweden.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 16 19:56:38
I had to click "more data" like 20 times.

Not odd, just lazy.
Hrothgar
Member
Sat Apr 17 10:29:33
All 4 under 50 people (including two teens 16 and older) are now 2 dose vaccinated in Utah, USA. All Pfizer through CVS Pharmacies.
Hrothgar
Member
Sat Apr 17 10:30:07
* In my household.
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 17 10:33:23
Sweet huh? It took longer than it should have to roll them out, but now that they are here, these mrna vaxes are pretty sweet.
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 17 13:59:47
April 17:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.0% (+0.5%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 24.8% (+0.5%)
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 17 19:59:33
Uh oh jergul. Just 10% more people need to accept the shot. And they havent even started advertising empty slots yet.
Sam Adams
Member
Sun Apr 18 14:20:25
Not gonna lie, that second shot gets on you if yoi have a strong immune system. I guess its a sign that the immune system is jumping into high gear so in some ways its welcome, but i could have used some sleep friday night... that would have been nice. My resting heartrate climbed from low 60s to 90. Which i guess isnt even that bad... but ive been turned into a weenie i think by not having a cold at all since this all started and not climbing much above 12k recently(thin air sucks worse i promise you). Tried to tough it out and not take painkillers as there is some evidence that painkillers after the shot create a very minor reduction in vaccine antibodies but i broke down at about hour 20 and gobbled aleve.

Still, if thats the precise mrna response, the real thing must really suck if you get a full case. So all in all im real happy with it. Just dont plan to have a productive day the day after your second.

Big bonus: time to go fly to a tropical resort and "work from home".
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 18 14:37:20
Sam, Most ppl I know felt sick for 1-2 days after the 2nd shot. Literally everyone I knew who got it.
Wrath of Orion
Member
Sun Apr 18 14:44:29
It varies a lot. I know plenty of people that only felt a little off for a day or so. I also know quite a few that did not have a fun couple of days (or longer).

Plan on taking a day or two off just in case, but it's not a certainty.
Hrothgar
Member
Sun Apr 18 16:57:33
I wouldn't say I felt "sick" entirely after the 2nd. I had the sensation of how I feel just before I get sick or just as I'm first starting to get sick for about a full day after. A bit "out of it" sensation and ready for a nap all day.

My wife felt like she was legit sick for 8 or so hours. Kids got a slight 8 hour fever or so.
Rugian
Member
Sun Apr 18 17:51:11
One fourth of the national population is now fully vaccinated.

April 18:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.5% (+0.5%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 25.4% (+0.6%)
jergul
large member
Sun Apr 18 19:48:39
http://edi...e-slowing-us-demand/index.html
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 18 20:03:34
Well, demand will slow down in all countries eventually.

The issue is Jergul drew a line in the sand at 50%.

http://www...t-one-covid-shot-cdc-says/amp/

Sam Adams
Member
Sun Apr 18 22:48:19
Ya, a few redneck counties and african cities are not enough to stop us reaching 50% soon. Poor jergul.

Besides those retards will get immunity one way or the other.
Rugian
Member
Mon Apr 19 06:09:15
You know, it's one thing to objectively look at the data and conclude that the US won't hit 50%. Right or wrong, that's at least an acceptable way to go about it.

That's not what jerful is doing here though. He insists the US won't hit 50% because he WANTS the US to not hit 50%. He's such a rabid anti-American hater, he would prefer for a global pandemic to run unchecked in the US.

So he will continue to blindly declare that 50% won't be reached, because he is wishing it won't be. And no amount of evidence to the contrary will change his mind.

This is sad.
TheChildren
Member
Mon Apr 19 07:55:13
how does it feel 2 try 2 win place nr 45th? battlin 4 spots 45th and 46th?

lol
Rugian
Member
Mon Apr 19 08:10:08
I have no idea what you are talking about.
jergul
large member
Mon Apr 19 10:01:56
Ruggy
You are a sad human being.
habebe
Member
Tue Apr 20 00:55:01
I seen Otters have now tested positive for the T-virus...I mean covid...
Rugian
Member
Tue Apr 20 13:49:02
Jergul

I'm actually quite a happy person. Especially with these numbers:

April 18:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 39.9% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 25.7% (+0.3%)
Rugian
Member
Tue Apr 20 13:49:34
^that's for the April 19
Seb
Member
Wed Apr 21 04:16:24
Fucking hell. Anyone red the FT article on the India surge?

How much of that is due to the variant?
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 07:56:18
I'd say its more due to their prematurely reopening despite having an extremely low vaccination rate. Combine that with bad hygienics and Hindu holy festivals and its hardly a surprise.
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:00:10
April 20:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.1% (+0.6%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 26.0% (+0.6%)

----

33 million Americans to go before we hit 50% for having gotten at least a first dose. It's make or break time for jergul's prediction.
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:09:50
Doing some math here:

-Total US population over the age of 18 is 258 million, of which 55 million are over the age of 65

-Of that 258 million over the age of 18, 51.1% (132 million) have gotten at least one dose

-Of the 55 million over the age of 65, 80.3% (44 million) have gotten at least their first dose

That means that for the 203 million in the ages 18-64 demographic, 43.2% (88 million) have gotten a first dose.

If we assume that the remaining 33 million needed to hit 50% will all come from the 18-64ers, that would imply that that demographic would need to hit a 59.5% vaccination rate.

That hardly seems unreasonable to me.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:11:08
I don't know that reopening had a big effect. Im not sure how effective lockdowns are here, let alone India.
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:14:33
And that doesn't account for the 1 million of under 18 year olds who have gotten J&J.
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:19:21
Habebe

India has literally been holding full capacity cricket matches with no Covid restrictions.

You can actually get an exemption from curfew if you're planning to attend a wedding.

And the country just celebrated both Holi and Kumbh Mela. Those aren't responsible for kicking off the spike, but they're certainly contributing to it.

Add in the fact that large parts of India are Third World in nature, and you basically have the worst breeding grounds possible for disease.
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:19:45
They gave JJ to minors?
Habebe
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:23:11
I feel like India is just a bunch of overcrowded run down apartment buildings and as such, which Id think is as bad as the cricket matches....

Holi always looked fun.
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 08:26:18
16 and 17 year olds can get J&J, yes.
Seb
Member
Wed Apr 21 10:39:46
Rugian:
I thought that had been true for a while, so there's something specific going on.

Also it looks like their variant is outcompeting the Kent strain, which is worrying potentially.
TheChildren
Member
Wed Apr 21 10:44:29
india is a breedin hole of diseases and bacteria.

the ganges is filled with diseases.

big surprise they got da nastiez strain of all.
TheChildren
Member
Wed Apr 21 11:04:01
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5K9tuDLAeU
Rugian
Member
Wed Apr 21 19:10:07
April 21:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.5% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 26.4% (+0.4%)
Rugian
Member
Thu Apr 22 16:56:19
April 22:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 40.9% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 26.9% (+0.5%)
Y2A
Member
Thu Apr 22 17:38:25
just got fully vaccinated yesterday (second shot of the Moderna). Feeling weak but no other side effects yet.
Sam Adams
Member
Thu Apr 22 18:36:40
Every single person i know has at least one vax now except for a pregnant lady who is skittish. Remember when I said that every american who really wanted one could get one in april and seb/jergul cried about it?

Lol
jergul
large member
Thu Apr 22 18:38:24
This is about demand, not supply sammy.
Habebe
Member
Thu Apr 22 18:50:59
In regards to demand, I'll go out on a limb and say if you get then first vax, 95%+ will get the 2nd.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 00:35:30
"This is about demand, not supply sammy."

The failure of europe is about supply. The fact that everyone i care about has an elite mrna vax is about supply.
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 23 01:49:15
Sam:

So your view is the slightly less than 50% of American adults who have not received a 1st Dose don't *want* one?

If so, jergul isn't so far off the money, given he's using population. That level of vaccine hesitancy would be a major issue?

Note I said I think Jergul was being pessimistic and the US would get to at least 70% coverage.

I also think you are wrong: many of the adults who have not yet had a first dose and will not get them by end of April aren't those that do not want them, but the proportion of the adult population badly underserved by medical services.

Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 01:59:50
Seb, I think it's 3 factors.

1. Vaccinne hesitancy.

2. Lack of follow through, now that a large portion of that at risk folks are covered, the medical apathy has set in, like not finishing up antibiotics

3. Less of a push to get the vaccinne to people. At risk people can get shots delivered tonyour door down here, doctors will call to tey and set up appointments as soon as available with the at risk groups ( my father) I had to call them however.

The push may intensify, IDK. But I think its a lot more than just hesitancy.
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 23 02:06:20
Habebe:

Yeah, it's all sorts of things is my point, not "everyone who wants one has one now".

"At risk people can get shots delivered tonyour door down here"

This is called domiciliary care, and is a standard feature of healthcare provision in European countries for all sorts of things, including Covid.

In the UK we pay GP*s an additional £10 for each dose given under domiciliary care or visit to care home or other residential setting to inventivise it.

*GPs, family medicine I think you can it in US? are privately owned, but commissioned by the NHS for health care provision. Because the state is effectively the single buyer it is free at point of care and the state can negotiate costs very effectively. OTOH GPs can also refuse to agree to sign up to services.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 02:57:00
For the covid shots I cant speak for outside of SC.Its available for other things like medicare covered my dad following his last surgery (new leg artery)

But it's really been pushed without pre approval for covid in the state since we have large rural populations and people who have trouble getting access to transportation or just didn't want to go to a Dr office in the age of covid.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 02:58:04
But then again you can go to Wal-Mart or almost any pharmacy and get covid shots with appointment. Or in the spot if cancellations.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 10:02:23
"So your view is the slightly less than 50% of American adults who have not received a 1st Dose don't *want* one?"

Many want one but are not in a rush. Younger adults, those with natural antibodies. Lazy people. Etc.

Some are antivaxxers. Probably about 25%. More in redneck and african areas. Less in more intelligent areas.
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 23 10:37:21
Sam:

In that case we will see a falling off.

If the rate of vaccinations remains broadly similar after April, you were likely wrong.

If the rate of vaccinations drops off, then you might be right.

If the rate of vaccinations drops off far enough, Jergul will be right.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 11:08:40
At this point It would need a catastrophic drop off for Jergul to be right....Im saying it may drop down to 1-1.5 million by 60%.
Rugian
Member
Fri Apr 23 11:11:14
Yeah, he's definitely still on track to be wrong.

J&J's fuckups have dragged us down a bit though...overall vaccinations per day are down somewhat since they had to put a pause on doses. Those guys need to get their shit together already.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 11:14:32
220 million bans in arms so far.

Pave of vaccinations has dropped quite a bit though down to .65 per 100. That's still around 2 mill/day.
Rugian
Member
Fri Apr 23 11:26:51
Where are you getting .65? I haven't seen it go below .8 this week.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 12:16:58
Total number of vaccination doses administered per 100
people in the total population. This is counted as a single dose,
and may not equal the total number of people vaccinated,
depending on the specific dose regime (e.g. people receive
multiple doses).

Per April 22 , I think it's a 7 day rolling average.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 12:36:13
"In that case we will see a falling off."

Indeed we should. We are already seeing this in redneck/african regions.

My high tech city is still seeing strong demand... outreach to the dumber/poorer neighborhoods are just starting.

The country as a whole should slow down around 50-55% i think... and then continue vaxxing more slowly.

This should make you euros happy... once our vaxxing slows down, we will help you lesser nations.
Habebe
Member
Fri Apr 23 12:44:26
"outreach to the dumber/poorer neighborhoods are just starting."

I live in a very black and redneck area and can attest that the effort to vaccinate has grown apathetic since most high risk individuals have been vaxed.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 13:28:12
If government was more trustworthy mandatory vaxes would be a good idea.

Alas, government functionaries like seb are not nearly competent enough and 1) can't be trusted with any more power and 2) have destroyed their own credibility so many times that you can almost forgive the idiots for not wanting the vax. Almost.
Seb
Member
Fri Apr 23 14:08:17
Sam:

There's a reason we have sequenced more samples and rolled out faster than you Sam. It's because we are more competent.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 14:48:17
"We can stop this by bureaucrats tracking and tracing". -seb, one year ago.

"AstraZeneca is as good as pfizer"
-also seb.

Lol @seb, the beacon of competency.
Sam Adams
Member
Fri Apr 23 15:07:47
the UK:

More corona deaths than the US. More lockdowns, more economic damage. Inferior vaccine.

Lol seb, you did everything worse.
Pillz
Member
Fri Apr 23 16:51:35
Of the top 15 deaths/million, 1-13 are European. UK is 13th.

Brazil is 14th. US is 15th.

So Seb is doing better then the Czech Republic and Italy and Bosnia, but worse then Brazil.

Wow
Seb
Member
Sat Apr 24 07:02:36
Sam:

Firstly, those aren't quotes - my position was somewhat different to that.

How is vaccine development a function of the public sector?

RE AZ, in the end, the final figures on efficacy are closer to the higher range than they were the lower range you quoted - surprised you keep bringing that up.

I mean, do you even think about what you write?

The real world stats show the Oxford vaccine is as effective at reducing hospitalisations and spread as the others.

And the same vaccine technology just produced a 77% effective malaria vaccine.

In terms of deaths, that's a consequence of a lack of lockdown application at the right time (a political decision), yet you use lack of lockdown as a success metric - incoherent twaddle.

And as for deaths, how the hell is it that five months after vaccinations started, US cumulative death toll is still rising so fast?

It's because you are not vaccinating the at risk groups, and focusing on getting people full vaccinated rather than maixmising vaccine coverage - and killing Americans as a result.

Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 24 08:15:01
Habebe

Are you getting your info from this source?

http://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations?country=~USA

This says the rolling 7-day average for the US is 0.86 per 100. Which sounds about right.

Come on man, don't undersell our vaccine rollout!
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 24 08:17:27
April 23:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 41.3% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 27.5% (+0.6%)

http://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
Habebe
Member
Sat Apr 24 08:57:46
Rugian, My bad, I wonder if I had an old page, I swiped to refresh it.
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 24 13:37:36
"The real world stats show the Oxford vaccine is as effective at reducing hospitalisations and spread as the others."

Only if you ignore the SA strain.

Dumb.
Rugian
Member
Sat Apr 24 14:22:52
April 24:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 41.8% (+0.5%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 28.0% (+0.5%)

-----

27 million Americans to go until 50% of the population has gotten at least one shot.
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 24 15:10:16
Gonna need a fuckton of antivax sentiment to spring up asap in order to keep us away from that final 8%.

Lol jergul.
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 24 15:13:46
http://www...al-envy-and-anger-16125800.php

The world is whining.
jergul
large member
Sat Apr 24 17:14:36
Final 22%

Fixed!
Sam Adams
Member
Sat Apr 24 22:42:26
Anyone that gets number 1 is going to get number 2 jergul.

Number 1 is the harbinger of your doom.
jergul
large member
Sun Apr 25 01:30:43
Jergul: 50% after January 1st 2022
Ruggy: 50% before January 1st 2022
Sammy: 50% before June 1st 2021
Fowyn: 50% before November 1st 2021
Habebe: 50% before July 1st 2021
State Department: 50% by May 19th 2021
Obam: 50% before May 15th 2021
Rugian
Member
Sun Apr 25 15:19:28
April 25:

% of US that has received at least 1 dose: 42.2% (+0.4%)

% of US fully vaccinated: 28.5% (+0.5%)

-----

26 million Americans to go until 50% of the population has gotten at least one shot.
Habebe
Member
Sun Apr 25 16:08:03
We may have overestimated desire to get the 2nd shot if youngot the first, I read almost 8% have not gotten the 2nd who did get the first, im not sure whatnthe window of time is on that.

Regardless July first still seems to be a rather conservative estimate yet, by design.
Rugian
Member
Sun Apr 25 16:10:23
Yeah I saw that as well. No idea why anyone would get a 1st shot and then say "meh, fuck it" to the second.
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