Utopia Talk / Politics / Crypto - To the moon or the abyss?

Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 07:00:22 Last thread http://utopiaforums.com/boardthread?id=politics&thread=88623 Finals posts: Nimatzo iChihuaha Fri Oct 01 06:07:03 And bird that allegedly knows a whale just told me to sell everything. Do what you will with that info. I checked coinanlyze and oepn intrest is collapsing. Preceded by rising open interest in a sideways market. Don't know what the latter indicates, but it looks fishy! Was not expecting this surge today, the opposite in fact. I don't like it! I am not touching the farms, and that is right now my only exposure. Nimatzo iChihuaha Fri Oct 01 06:30:16 "Preceded by rising open interest in a sideways market" Scratch that. I was seeing things wrong. It's just collapsing OI, a lot of short positions got liquidated. Habebe Member Fri Oct 01 06:34:32 "And bird that allegedly knows a whale just told me to sell everything. Do what you will with that info" Yeah, a lot of people for a while now have been predicting a matket crash this fall, and the worldy economy has already been shaky, evergrande is another jenga block being pulled out. Nimatzo iChihuaha Fri Oct 01 06:55:19 I see that a slower pump brought BTC above the level of the lower high around 44800. That could indicate that this is a natural rally in the wake of a bullish sign, maybe? Nimatzo iChihuaha Fri Oct 01 06:58:31 "a lot of people for a while now have been predicting a matket crash this fall" Probably not this early in the fall though, November December as companies are closing the fiscal year. I have this, probably unfounded, idea that bad things usually happen after new year.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:15:06 I'm bullish and have been ever since I saw the price action from $2600-$2900 for ETH. This was a perfectly executed pullback to fuel the next leg up in the bull market. OI collapsed because of the liquidations. Volume disagrees with OI, that makes OI irrelevant right now. "nhill Member Tue Sep 28 23:39:16 my guess is that Q4 will open with a bang and that there's be one final push into accumulation on Thursday. Friday pump, weekend dump, and next week send it." So far I've been spot on with this call. We had a final push into accumulation yesterday, and today (Q4) opened with a bang. Friday is pumping. Next step of the playbook is going to be a weekend dump to fake everyone out, and then next week everyone will FOMO back.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:21:24 This pullback didn't happen as soon as I expected, but do recall I said we needed accumulation in $2600-$2900 about 6 weeks ago. I thought it was going to happen early September, but got faked out by the final pump and dump. But my high time frame calls have been painted to a T so far. So many people have been shorting in September, many have been accumulating USD waiting to see directionality, and a lot of whales have been accumulating ETH and BTC in their ranges ($2600-$2900 ETH and 39-41K BTC). We're going to see all time highs again before long. There was an intense negative news cycle it didn't even break the bullish structure. Imagine what a positive news cycle would do at this point. ;)
Rugian Member	Fri Oct 01 07:34:37 This entire thread series in a nutshell: Gambling addicts find a way to feed their addictions without hitting up the casino
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:35:42 Rugian in a nutshell: Clueless.
TheChildren Member	Fri Oct 01 07:37:06 cryptos buyin powerplants while ordinary folks like us have no energy this winter!!!!! WHY ISNT GOVERNMENT STEPPIN IN.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:40:07 It's not our fault y'all aren't able to stop trends. Cryptocurrency is going to be the digital fabric for the web, gaming, and finance system for the next century. We can afford power plants because we saw it before you. Government isn't "stepping in" anytime soon, if your version of "stepping in" is stopping crypto from eating the world. Jerome Powell was on record just yesterday saying they aren't even thinking of banning it. You have two options: 1. Be an idiot luddite and wait years like everyone else before getting in the game. 2. Swallowing your pride and accepting you were wrong about crypto. I'm here to help.
Rugian Member	Fri Oct 01 07:41:13 Nhill I may be a little bitter that you turned my "Joe Biden is a reality-detached senile liar" thread into a "will Nhill's billionaire crypto profits be affected by the new ultrarich tax" discussion. Dude, you're not that much of a player.
Paramount Member	Fri Oct 01 07:42:50 ”I'm here to help.” — anonymous guy on the internet
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:44:04 That was Dukhat, not me. I ain't trying to play shit, bub. Merely enjoying the next paradigm of digital technology, both building it and using it. Just because I got rich off it doesn't mean you gotta get sand in your vagina. The money I made was only a side effect, anyways
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 07:45:24 Paramount, This anonymous guy on the internet just doubled Nimatzo's money in 3 weeks. Your loss. ;) Y'all are so prideful you decide to stay middle class and it's pathetic.
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 07:55:14 Will imaginary shit go up or down in value today? If Bernie Madoff was alive today he'd be kicking himself that he didn't come up with this scam.
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 07:57:53 "Y'all are so prideful you decide to stay middle class and it's pathetic." In my case it's just called ethics. It's not OK to profit off of suckers. Taking advantage of people is never OK.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:05:23 Lol, you are so far detached from how this works I don't even know where to start. Sometimes I forget how far ahead I am but then idiotic comments like that hit different and I'm reminded of how blessed my journey has been. Thank you ;)
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:08:06 Y'all still sticking to memes and tropes from 2013. Reminds me that most the people here are the same as the boomers we all complained about growing up. You got complacent, saw Bitcoin as an imaginary money scam for criminals, and didn't even see an entire decentralized financial system get built before your very eyes. One that frees the world from the real criminals: Central bankers and the hyper-wealthy's unfair advantage in the financial system. But then say it's "taking advantage of people". Lmao, such a forum of crusty old clowns this has become.
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 08:09:58 The most disturbing thing to me is that the US government seems to have decided that outright scams are perfectly OK. All the noise you hear/read about cryptocurrencies is manufactured for the sole purpose of conning less informed and sophisticated "investors" into giving the con artists their money in exchange for these here magic beans. All the "to the moon" crap you see on social media and frankly the regular media is designed to exploit the fear of missing out in working class dopes with hopes of getting rich quick.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:11:11 Also, a hint: I never buy or use Bitcoin. That's old news, and the crypto for institutional investors. The real magic is DeFi, Web3, and the metaverse. You'll see it eventually. ;)
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:13:29 Aw, clearly Murder bought on someone's recommendation thinking he would get rich and will be bitter until the end about it. I'm sorry, bud. That shit does happen. It's a financial system, decentralized. But you can certainly run all sorts of scam on it. It's infrastructure. You can also run scams on, *GASP*, The Internet! Better unplug your modem now, otherwise you're simply an unethical participant.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:17:03 Also, we should ban both the USPS and email system. So many pyramid schemes are sent through letters and emails, we should ban the infrastructure that makes it possible! Lmao, so dumb.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:18:07 Also, computers while we are at it. They allow people to execute pesky viruses that harm them. The people must be protected. Let's go back to the stone age and trade salt, that way we don't run the risk of poor little murder losing some money from a crypto scam.
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 08:19:50 "Aw, clearly Murder bought on someone's recommendation ..." I don't scams.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:20:35 Don't forget the stock market. We need to shut that down. Imagine all the people that bought Gamestop at $400 and now lost their life savings. These poor sheep. Lock everything down! LMAO XD
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:23:28 It's okay murder. Really, you aren't the first idiot to get scammed. It even happened before crypto, believe it or not. I got a letter when I was 11 years old telling me to send $1 to these 10 people and then forward the letter to 100 more. It promised I'd be rich. I was too lazy to forward the letter or send the $1, but I read about the scheme later and it turns out they weren't trying to make me rich. :(
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 08:28:35 Seriously, cryptocurrencies have become the online equivalent of people knocking on your door wanting to tell you the "good news". How do I know it's a scam? The hard sell. The literally millions of accounts on social media pushing this shit. It's so pervasive and invasive that it's even found its way onto this tiny dying forum. There's literally no corner of the internet too remote or too small for the pumpers.
murder Member	Fri Oct 01 08:30:19 "I was too lazy to forward the letter or send the $1, but I read about the scheme later and it turns out they weren't trying to make me rich. :(" You did forward it. It just took you a few decades.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:31:47 Name one thing I've pumped here. I'll wait. ;) I'm exploring the technology, and sharing my journey, that's it. Nim was interested in trading so I showed him my process for that, but I only trade to hedge risk, it's not a focus of mine. The only thing I've done here is give you the opportunity to benefit and explore from the digital fabric of the future (web, gaming, and finance) before everyone else. If I was a scammer, I'd be telling you to buy $HEX and stake it for a year. Don't blame me because you lack capabilities of discernment. ;)
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:33:32 murder You don't even understand the use cases for cryptocurrency beyond running scams (which, just like any infrastructure, can be done). Start there, and you'll look like less of an idiot. ;)
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 08:37:32 In fact, I would say scamming is probably the most prominent use cases of crypto right now. Much like it was the biggest use case of the internet in the 90s before there was wider knowledge, regulations, and standard protections (e.g. email spam filtering) in place. This is where crypto is at the moment. I look forward to the day where scams like $HEX and the latest pump and dump dog-themed coin are made illegal. But there's much more to crypto than the scams if you are smart or diligent enough to find it. If not? Well then wait until daddy government has regulated it enough for you to play safe in the sandbox.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 10:07:31 Indeed you have. You even called the Friday pump, that is scary precision... You sure you are not the composite man? ;) I read some more news, equities rising, USD declining. All is well. The phone call from uncle birdie is the real thing that startled me and I remembered the past fridays and started looking for confirmation. It was a very short call when I was riding back to office from lunch with colleague, and his voice was like he was standing in a broom closet warning me about an impending nuclear strike, "s-s-s-s sell everything sell it. I gotta go bye". I talked to him now and got details, it was a warning about the week end. I explained someone already told me this was in store, you made me think it was the end of times! The thing is he only holds/trades tokens, no defi, so pullbacks are more important.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 10:23:41 Paramount It was very simple, I am very cautious, I have been fucked before trusting the wrong people, so I didn't do any big moves based on what Nhill said for weeks, months even. Despite a lot of signals early on that he was trustworthy I only slowly acted on the information he was sharing. I even said that I am very slow to act on this kind of stuff in one of the early threads. In hind sight, that was a mistake! Unless you are a complete retard, you have had the opportunity validate, either by just waiting and observing the public trade signals and calls he made and allow for some trust in the persons ability to form or confirm elsewhere. I did both and while not near his level, the most valuable aspect of running into this "anonymous guy" was learning more, not just about crypto, but about managing money and starting to learn more about macro trends. Anonymous or not, he knows what he is talking about and every time I have shared my temptation to go full degen and subsequently retreat back to being conservative, he has 100% reinforced my risk aversion. You do what you wish!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 10:34:17 There is really no sense in responding to this stuff. None of these people have followed these threads, but they are all there in public view. Every call, every signal, every token flagged as the quality stuff. Go read them and weep!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 16:39:23 Nhill OHM has been preforming pretty well and according what you expect? What are the signs it is doing the job as reserve currency?
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:34:14 "Indeed you have. You even called the Friday pump, that is scary precision... You sure you are not the composite man? ;)" Shh. ;) Glad you got your fear taken care of there. The times of greatest fear are often the times of greatest opportunity in crypto. This was a hell of a pump, even more than I expected (but I did expect it, it was a confluence of many factors, such as the psychology importance of the quarterly open, the news cycle winding down, and everyone being bearish). Now we see if the weekend dump happens. Hopefully it's not too demoralizing. My suspicion is that it'll dump to around 44-45.5K and do some more sideways accumulation for the whales. "Nhill OHM has been preforming pretty well and according what you expect? What are the signs it is doing the job as reserve currency?" Yes I've been keeping a close eye on it. The fact that it went down today when $ETH rallied so hard shows me it's serving its purpose! It went up while ETH was sideways and down, and then down when it went up. That suggests people are holding their reserves in $OHM instead of stablecoins and they deploy those reserves strategically. The cool thing about $OHM is you don't *need* to use it like that. The compound yield rewards you for holding it, and that yield is real yield. It's actually based on income generated by bonds, Olympus Pro, and their sister projects (e.g. Wonderland, a fork that shares 33% of its profits). I recommended Wonderland here at $500. It's now worth $3,894. Over 600% gains the past month, and I don't see it slowing down. The dev behind it is one of the top 3 DeFi devs in the ecosystem. He spends 18 hours a day coding DeFi and his code is beautiful. He's obsessed. :) Wonderland is going to add use cases too, like an RPG game where you can play with your reserve currency as you hold it. And I bet he's going to add a mechanism to put up your staked $TIME for collateral. Every time I share this project I keep thinking the price is high, but each time it keeps going up. And this is BEFORE the use cases are released (I'm in a group w/ the dev so that's how I know they are coming). My reserve currency bag is 90% $OHM (staked as $sOHM), and 10% $TIME (staked as $MEMOries). I'm super bullish on the reserve currency space. Can't wait until they release one on $FTM so we can have a crypto native reserve there, too.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:36:56 I've been considering coding my own reserve currency that is based on Olympus Pro for $FTM. Nothing in the works yet, though. Have my AI contract obligations to fulfill before I'd have enough free time to release a crypto project.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:46:15 Even intraday you can see $OHM working out. As we rallied hard it went down (reserves being deployed), and then as we started to go sideways it went back up 5% (profits being taken and sent back to $OHM). Sometimes I get a little teary eyed. Been on this project since it was under $300 and participated in the governance. Love to see it grow up exactly as I hoped to raise it. :') There's still only 20,481 wallets in the world holding $OHM. Very early.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:48:58 If I gave you my *conservative* price target for $OHM as it matures, you wouldn't even believe me. And the funny thing is that even if the price went down you'd make a profit off it from the yield right now. This is the biggest development in the crypto native space and most people simply don't understand the scope of the undertaking. In fact, only about 20,000 people in the entire world have figured it out.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:51:43 It is without a doubt my most comfortable hold. $FTM would come in second. I have no fear at all holding those two. Zero, nada, zilch.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:54:09 Of course, I have to give homage to the mack daddy that started it all, Ethereum. That's also a comfortable hold, but I don't expect big things from it at this point. My price target for the next leg up with Ethereum is $10,000.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:55:34 Also, not gonna lie, I'm a bit satisfied to see my $ADA thesis play out as expected. It's the only crypto out of the top 5 that is still down over the past week. Macro + Tech == Profit.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:57:52 My only problem right now is I'm having a hard time taking profits out of my reserve currency bags to continue to explore new projects. I'm so bullish on them I feel irresponsible. But I want to explore new ecosystems like Elrond here soon, so I'll have to bite the bullet and peel off some gains.
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:58:50 (by that, I mean I feel irresponsible taking any money out of my reserve currency bags) I had an AI contract pay out this week, so I have some fresh USD to play with. >:)
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 17:59:24 Might as well make it 10 posts in a row. Just to piss of Rugian. UP is my personal crypto blog. XD
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 18:05:43 "It went up while ETH was sideways and down, and then down when it went up." I like the idea very much. OHM hasn't been around for long enough to have gone through all quads, but you would expect it to still get hammered in a possible quad 4? "The cool thing about $OHM is you don't *need* to use it like that. The compound yield rewards you for holding it, and that yield is real yield." It looks really nice, really nice. I am not going full degen, but I am bringing over more fiat, for SC farming and OHM. "I've been considering coding my own reserve currency that is based on Olympus Pro for $FTM." >:) Yes!
nhill Member	Fri Oct 01 18:07:29 > but you would expect it to still get hammered in a possible quad 4 I would expect it to do well in quad 4, as quad 4 implies deflation, and if Olympus is doing it's job, it should be the crypto native asset that deflates during quad 4. That would be the ultimate test, though!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 18:18:39 The funniest thing is, that the very first thing I acted on based on Nhills information (before a single crypto trade) was the M1 portfolio of ordinary equity, funds and bonds. Even to untrained eyes, it is quite obvious it is a balanced portfolio. Now after subscribing to hedge eye (guess who scammed me into this!) I understand there is a lot of thought and analysis going into that. DAM YOU NHILL YOU WALL STREET SHILL! -No one "If I gave you my *conservative* price target for $OHM as it matures, you wouldn't even believe me." It would take shares from BTC and the stablecoins right? So that would be quite a lot :) "I'm a bit satisfied to see my $ADA" I'm glad I am out :) I feel comfortable enough that I can move more fiat in.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 18:20:20 "That would be the ultimate test, though!" I suspected it was the case, but I feel like joining the bet >:)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Fri Oct 01 18:21:17 lol I accidentally clipped in something I never ended up posting, but it stands on it's own and has nothing to do with the conversation now :P
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 03:50:37 "The funniest thing is, that the very first thing I acted on based on Nhills information (before a single crypto trade) was the M1 portfolio of ordinary equity, funds and bonds. Even to untrained eyes, it is quite obvious it is a balanced portfolio. Now after subscribing to hedge eye (guess who scammed me into this!) I understand there is a lot of thought and analysis going into that. DAM YOU NHILL YOU WALL STREET SHILL! -No one" Haha, no kidding. Glad the M1 portfolio inspired you! It has done relatively well in Q3. Put a lot of thought into it. I'm the worst crypto shill ever. Don't people remember when I literally had multiple threads telling people to not buy crypto? It was only after people requested actual recommendations that I acquiesced, reluctantly, and with many warnings about the volatility and potential for year+ long bear markets. You can follow this thread chain back to my first thread and see, if you'd like "It would take shares from BTC and the stablecoins right? So that would be quite a lot :)" Yup. My *conservative* price target is $15,000. But unlike most projects, I don't have a plan to take profits, necessarily. I plan on using it as a reserve currency-- a flight during bear markets and pullbacks. Problem is that we're so early on the project that I'm keeping nearly all of my allocation staked. I can't bring myself to sell at such a cheap price!
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 03:50:49 I know most of the haters that pop in (e.g. murder, Rugian, Paramount) are simply jealous of my success. But, like I said... haters gonna hate. Not my problem.
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 03:57:35 $OHM is having a nice day, again, performing exactly as it should! +4% now that $ETH is -0.95% on the day. Love to see it. The most encouraging sign was the down day yesterday. Up days could just mean that people are buying the project, but down days when $ETH is up means people are actually incentivized to use it as a reserve currency. Never thought I'd be so happy to see one of my cryptos go down. XD
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 07:17:02 "nhill Member Fri Oct 01 17:34:14 I recommended Wonderland here at $500. It's now worth $3,894. Over 600% gains the past month, and I don't see it slowing down ... Every time I share this project I keep thinking the price is high, but each time it keeps going up. And this is BEFORE the use cases are released (I'm in a group w/ the dev so that's how I know they are coming)." Wonderland at $4,000 now even though the base in the pair ($AVAX) is down. Look at you lurkers, pretending to hate on your crypto god nhill, yet following my calls anyways. ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Oct 02 07:46:32 Thing is and this only hit me yesterday, these threads that you and I have been having, are not a defining characteristics of UP's and very rare in the 20+ year history of this place, where two people are talking over god know how many threads and there is no debate, none. There is no break down in civility, one person declares his ignorance (me) and asks question for the purpose of learning. That is not how UP works, you don't come here and show inferiority and ignorance, you come here to debate stuff and assert with certainty. And the people you debate have nothing to teach you, the neo nazi post modern communist liberal Trumpican shills that they are. This has been going on for over 20 year, people come to UP for whatever it is that UP is, don't get me wrong, I also come here for the same misanthrop reasons everyone else does, it's not all bad, but I think we have a hard time breaking that cycle. I turned 40 this september, I am tired of this shit, it has all become so predictable! We come here and we get into the same argument with the same people across different topics. I am no better as I have shown several times during this period and I these days, my own failing pisses me off more than any of the poster do. "$15,000" A market cap of 30 billion USD roughly. But really we are talking about trillions are we not? Provided a lot of linear assumptions here, I grant you, but potentially a native reserve currency - the greenback of the blockchain - would be massive. "pretending to hate on your crypto god nhill, yet following my calls anyways. ;)" I swear the god, I have thought this as well, not based on the price moving, but come on man, no one is lurking and making money? I don't believe it.
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 08:14:33 > A market cap of 30 billion USD roughly. But really we are talking about trillions are we not? Provided a lot of linear assumptions here, I grant you, but potentially a native reserve currency - the greenback of the blockchain - would be massive. Well, the supply inflates based on staking, so it's probably closer to 100 billion USD by the time the price is $15000, but, yes, the long term vision would be trillion dollar market cap or more. Hence conservative estimate. ;)
nhill Member	Sat Oct 02 08:18:26 > I swear the god, I have thought this as well, not based on the price moving, but come on man, no one is lurking and making money? I don't believe it. People here are smarter on average by virtue of playing a strategy game like Utopia back as a teenager. And crypto is like the ultimate strategy game! I'm sure more than a few are following along but scared to post because of all the irrational crypto hate from dickheads like Dukhat. But, yeah, that is UP culture. A place where you go to whip out thee old e-peen and refuse to admit you were wrong. It's a delightful anachronism at this point. ;)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sat Oct 02 18:01:44 El Salvador has just started mining bitcoin using the energy from volcanoes. http://www...d-theyve-already-made-269.html The core of the earth is now powering the financial revolution. This is beautiful :,)
Paramount Member	Sun Oct 03 02:43:18 Bitcoin is the devil’s currency. Powered by the flames of hell.
nhill Member	Sun Oct 03 03:25:31 Yet another jealous hater. Get in line, kid.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Oct 03 05:10:45 I think Paramount is one of those that is secretly taking non investment advice from these threads. He is one of the youngest posters, there is no inherent reason he should think like a boomer. Don't disappoint me Paramount!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Oct 03 05:52:54 I don't think I should try to trade anything other than BTC and ETH. Probably ETH because I like the volatility better than BTC. The other alts still have low volumes and are less predictable. I closed a very patient trade or whatever I was going for... with Avax B:68,6 S:73,2 yesterday Actually the one trade I can explain the best why I sold and based on what. I have been using Williams indicators. The fractals, the alligator, together with the awesome oscillator of his, additionally MFI and stochastic RSI. The price hit 73.5, then it retraced and went back up (possible double top formation). I saw the MFI wasn't nearly as high, the volumes had dropped and the momentum was cut despite a slightly higher high on the second top. I sold. Besides a wick that just hit 73, the price has not returned. Totally missed the opportunity to re-enter at 68 which I have as a first buy range since earlier. I did not want to put an overnight sell order though, since I have no idea what is happening today. I rather be on stand by with more SCs.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Sun Oct 03 06:04:08 Of course the double tops were fractals. Forgot to mention that. At least currently the williams set speak to me. Together with volume, ranges and chart patterns I think I can make a repeatable process. It has become easier to see when and where to average up or down. I need to work on the identification of risk ranges. Which is the bread and butter of hedgeye as well :) All the previous trading was just chaos! And this trading of crypto has now a compounding effect, I have a far more refined idea of how to deal with equities than just buying stuff every month at the same time. That is noobie stuff :P Buy low and sell high (well duh) has a far more non trivial meaning now.
nhill Member	Sun Oct 03 22:20:17 Nice work! It's good to find indicators that mesh with your style. Looks like the pullback is starting now. I expected a manipulation dump over the weekend, but it didn't happen (well, I guess the weekend isn't over for some time zones, but I don't see it happening in the next few hours). I would expect some sort of pullback to around 44.5-46K for Bitcoin and ETH + alts a bit more (percentage wise, somewhere around 5-8% for ETH and alts). Pullbacks are good, up only is unhealthy. That goes for any market, btw. A pullback allows new entries and further participation. Up only prevents smart money from entering and then we get mini crashes like September's -25%!
nhill Member	Sun Oct 03 22:24:20 Also, it's good to be smart money. ;) Buying near local highs can be painful unless you're a trader and able to cut losses & short. That's part of the reason why, on average, I only trade with ~1% of my capital. The deeper your bags, the more difficult it is to be nimble (although it does offer some advantages such as opening up the ability to manipulate price, but that's a whole different game).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 04 04:42:00 Alright :) So, I am looking to still get back into LUNA, which has been preforming very well, setting new all time highs. Have you give it any thought, what the range is? I had an overnight buy order for 41.1, it came so close 41.6 :(, I would think anything from there and below is a good buy in price for LUNA?
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 04 10:03:22 Scammy the bears is at it again.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 13:27:58 Very strange price action right now on ETH and BTC. If 46.9K is the lowest we get on the pullback then it looks like people front ran the support. Lotta FOMO in the market right now. Staying cautious.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 13:29:54 LUNA is in price discovery right now... hard to find a good target. Glad I entered a week ago! Thanks for bringing it to my attention. I'd add more on any pullback. Somewhere around $42-44 looks good at the moment, but price discovery can be unpredictable.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 13:50:34 Some people are speculating that the strange price action is due to insider knowledge of a Bitcoin ETF approval. It's possible. But, for now, I'm still accumulating stables and reserves for a real dip.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 13:56:34 http://imgur.com/sCyCezI Perfect meme to describe all the haters in this thread. Except Dukhat. We all know Dukhat isn't even capable of fake smiling because he's so miserable.
Rugian Member	Mon Oct 04 14:04:07 "Cheerful and jovial on the outside. Dead inside" I make a couple of snide remarks about your investing decisions, and in response you tear my entire fucking life apart. On a Monday no less. Truly, you are a monster.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 14:07:18 I'm sorry, Rugian. Here, have some Bitcoin! It'll make you feel better. ;)
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 14:14:05 I can also send a JPEG to cheer you up. :) Spent $42 (was a free mint, but cost $42 in gas) on minting a JPEG on Saturday and it's worth ~$1000 now. Someone offered me $200 in crypto for it today. He/she thinks I'm a sucker. o_o
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 04 14:28:47 "Lotta FOMO in the market right now. Staying cautious." I am not taking any chances, I took out half of my FTm-tomb into stable coins. Even a 15% drop would be worth it. "LUNA is in price discovery right now" Thank you! You know when you are learning something and you can see something, a concept and you are like, isn't there a name for that? There is, "price discovery". That I didn't run in to it yet. The perils of unaccredited education!
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 14:36:48 I figured you'd latch onto that and research it! Such a great student :D
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 04 16:15:50 I have an idea for a sca.. I mean a crypto project. It's called The Utopia Protocol, UPP. It is an NFT that when minted is exactly 1 random post from the UP archives. You can then use them in the Utopia politics game, like a giant deck of cards in a game of political debate. You collect enough of them and you can perhaps have a coherent debate and win. Winners of debates are rewarded with Utopia Dollar coins (UPDC), which is worth nothing, but is an on chain representation of the time you spent playing Utopia Politics. You can then burn the UPDC and have a chance to win more UPP NFTs!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Mon Oct 04 16:16:44 You mint the NFTs by sending ETH, FTM or SOL to my wallet.
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 19:51:44 Haha. How do we determine who won? Voting system? P.S.: I was serious about sending Rugian a JPEG to cheer him up. Was going to send him one of my Ethermore characters. Let's have some fun and see how much he missed out. Here's the link: http://ope...9943b51afbc134dec31b74fe8/9229 The highest offer I received for it so far was around $130.
Rugian Member	Mon Oct 04 20:02:42 Here's a JPEG http://me....b4ed69466a48c4be8c071db2304898
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 20:09:05 Lol :) NFTs are just digital artifacts (e.g. JPEGs) that have certificates of authenticity attached to them. Just like artifacts in the real world, people pay for the certified originals. This particular one you can also use the character in a text base role playing game online :p And there are services where you can curate your own digital art gallery in the metaverse! So it's like showing off your own private art collection except you don't have to worry about people vandalizing or stealing it. ;) Rich people play millions of dollars for some of these. Who knows, maybe one day this one will be worth that. :D (doubt it, but hey).
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 20:11:49 In fact, one of the most valuable JPEGs is just clipart of a rock. It's valuable because it was the first significant blockchain art project in history and there was only 100 of them made. Shitty clipart selling for millions of dollars. Just like shitty art in the real world sells for millions if it has the right name attached to it. :p Fortune magazine wrote a small piece on it. It's paywalled but you get the gist from the lede: http://fortune.com/2021/08/27/etherrock-nfts-worth-millions/
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 23:41:47 BTW the #1 use case for NFTs right now is the flex. You got a picture of yourself with a Rolex on driving a Lambo? Could be photoshopped. Could be you rented the Lambo and borrows the Rolex from a stranger. Have a Cryptopunk? That shit is cryptographically verified. You can flex it and people will respect it. Think of this. If you were looking for wealthy people to fund an idea would you go to the club where people could flex bottle service for a night, or would you go to the crypto punk discord and find the punk holders that are most certainly 7-figure? It's a whole new currency, one of reputation. I generally try to lay low, so it ain't my style, but I'll flip it because I understand the *fundamental* value. Dukhat just pissed his pants reading that sentence: http://imgur.com/sCyCezI
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 23:43:56 y'all are idiots. literally giving you the keys to the fucking castle and only Nim is smart enough to be humble and hop on board. have fun staying middle class!
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 23:49:33 murder: buT mY eThIcS dOnT pErMiT mE maKinG moNeY oFf riCh pEoPle massive cope. if you had any ethics at all, you wouldn't mind scalping some profit off rich fucktards. but instead, you stubbornly stick to your boomer ideology from 2013 and end up just like your parents and their friends: irrelevant
nhill Member	Mon Oct 04 23:54:49 BTW, Rugian: If you downloand metamask (browser extension) and send me your crypto address, I will send you an Ethermore character to cheer you up. It's the least I can do after utterly demoralizing you in such a cruel way.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 05:22:48 $TIME just hit $4,487.46. Holy shit, this shit's crazy. Never ceases to surprises me. I'm rich again, lol (at a whole 'nother level).
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 05 12:19:38 May the ledger validate all your transactions in the next level as well :) LUNA fib retraced and my buy order at 44,3 triggered. Ready to buy more if we get more pull back. I am super bullish on LUNA! Gonna stake it :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 05 12:44:22 Speaking of risk: http://cry...ers-exploit-token-plummets-93/ Fantom DeFi protocol Stake Steak has suffered an exploit allowing a hacker to mint massive amounts of the protocol’s STEAK token, causing the price to crash over 93%. No wonder the LP pool gives 200% interest a day for liquidity. I don't know anything about STEAK, but maybe a buy opportunity >:)
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 13:45:18 I saw that :) It was one of the protocols I explored and determined to be of low quality, so thankfully I avoided the crash. But you've got the right thinking for a quick scalp trade. It's up 353.2% from the bottom already according to coingecko. Buying $TOMB and $TSHARES while there was blood on the street made me a ton of scratch. I don't have the motivation to pick the bones of this one, but it could be a good time to buy! I'd be sure to check the liquidity pools to make sure they weren't completely rugged though.
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 13:47:54 After a cursory look at the analytics on SpookySwap and SpiritSwap, I'd avoid this one. Looks like there's only around $5,000 in total liquidity. This project is most likely dead. I'd have to join their Discord to see, but I'm not all that interested. They might release a new token or something. But, either way, with $5000 in liquidity, I'd recommend staying away from this. $TOMB was able to maintain its liquidity in the millions, so I was okay with buying it at the bottom. With this one, you'd probably be left holding the bag when the pools are done being drained.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 05 15:25:33 Yea you are probably right. I want to ask about something you mentioned in the other thread: "If you want to get into crypto the biggest thing to research is the liquidity flows." I don't even know at what I end I should begin to do that :) can you point in a direction?
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 16:36:25 It's more about the overall understanding, I didn't learn it as much as I discovered it. Really, I'm surprised people don't talk about it. To me, it's the most important aspect of choosing a crypto project. The gist is that whatever a crypto has its liquidity tied to it becomes dependent upon. The best way I can illustrate it is by using Wonderland and Olympus as examples. Wonderland's #1 Pair is $TIME/$AVAX Olympus' #1 Pair is $OHM/$DAI So when people buy or sell Olympus, it will go up or down relative to USD. This is why it is able to remain uncorrelated to Ethereum, despite running on the Ethereum network (it's also the trick that Richard Heart uses with $HEX to manipulate the price in bear markets, but that's another story). But when people buy or sell $TIME it only moves the price in $AVAX. Therefore, if $AVAX crashes, $TIME will crash harder. If $AVAX rallies, $TIME will rally harder. It's essentially a leveraged position on $AVAX. But $AVAX gets a lot of its liquidity from the ETH pair. So $AVAX is already like a leveraged Ethereum. And $TIME a leveraged $AVAX that's leveraged $ETH. So, if you're following, you can see that the further away you get from USD, the more risk you expose yourself to in fiat terms. And because fiat currently serves as the oracle for crypto (and the world in general), that risk is real. The way you find these out is to do the detective work. Look at the volume on centralized exchanges for the different pairs. BTC gets the vast majority of its liquidity from stablecoins. That's why it moves the slowest and has the least risk. ETH gets a lot of liquidity from its BTC pair. Remember, even though ETH does trade a lot on the USD pair, the fact that there's *significant* volume on the BTC pair opens up the USD pair to arbitrage opportunities. This is the Great Mystery that everyone mulls on and waits for the "magical day" that ETH decouples from BTC. That day simply won't come, in my opinion. You'll see local dislocations but these liquidity pools have been setup for years and aren't going anywhere. Arbitrage will always win the game, and ETH will never fully decouple from BTC. For cryptos that trade on DEX only, it's even easier. You can simply look up the liquidity pairs on the DEX analytics pages. Here's an example: http://ana...0ad4944b70b320acb24c95fa2def7c Here's another example: $TOMB is intended to stay pegged as close as possible to $FTM. How do they accomplish that? Well, the only liquidity pair is $FTM/$TOMB. So if they are close to a 1:1 ratio and FTM doubles in a day, what happens to $TOMB? How will we get it to peg? It'll stay at peg automatically if nobody does anything. :) That's why the #1 goal of Tomb right now is to deepen the liquidity pools now that we are close to peg. That way buying/selling shouldn't effect the peg much. But this also exposes why Wonderland isn't a good reserve currency right now. They are prioritizing price appreciation in this phase of development ($OHM did similar at the beginning). But I suspect the devs will move liquidity into a USD pair eventually (probably $MIM stablecoin). The cool thing about how Olympus and Wonderland work is the bonding mechanism leaves them in charge of their liquidity pools, unlike other crypto projects that rely on investors to provide most of the liquidity. That's why they can work as a reserve currency, but random crypto X never would. It's the secret sauce that people don't understand. If you can unlock this understanding, you will become a master!
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 05 17:20:56 I see, pretty straightforward in the abstract sense, the mastery is in the detective work and putting the puzzle together. Might as well! I am staring at these things every day, I may as well do that in a more structured way. Most splendid feedback Nhill. I save these kinds of post of yours into notes :) and one day Nhill, satoshi willing, I will come over to the US and buy you beer. I will buy you a whole truck of beers :)
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 17:27:48 I look forward to it :)
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Tue Oct 05 19:23:23 Shit. Is there an AVAX faucet? I am stuck with BNB after bridging to Avalanche network and now I can't approve BNB for a swap, because I don't have 8 cents worth of AVAX. lol the worst thing is, to bridge back, you also need AVAX. lulz so I am stuck in limbo. I am too tired for this :)
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 19:41:13 They give you free $AVAX if you bridge over $75 from Ethereum but I guess they don't do that for BNB. Do you have any ETH assets you can transfer? http://bridge.avax.network/
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 19:42:30 Running out of gas is a cardinal sin in DeFi ... hate to say it but I've been there and it sucks :D
nhill Member	Tue Oct 05 19:44:23 http://www...f0abf802ae4a2eb9527b01f8859d3f Binance also has an option to transfer AVAX if you have assets there.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 06 03:06:41 Well fucking binance loves to suspend network every time I want to move stuff. Guess which network is suspended? :) I wanted to save gas money and not go through ethereum, now I guess the joke is on me… I will buy eth do it that way tonight after work.
nhill Member	Wed Oct 06 03:12:52 KuCoin also has an option to withdraw straight on avalanche. I can also send you some if you'd like! I did my first few bridges to AVAX from ETH through the official one, but ever since I've been using AnySwap. They also refunded my gas fees at one point, and them some, by airdropping me $1000 worth of a crypto called "Great Bridging" lol. I don't know who "they" are or if they are officially sponsored by Avalanche behind the scenes or not. But it was a nice little surprise. I converted it all to $TIME right away (this was back when $TIME was around $700)
nhill Member	Wed Oct 06 03:14:12 http://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/good-bridging Guess it's called "Good Bridging". And looks like it was a good idea to sell around $2. I had no idea what they were planning on doing with the token so I just sold it right away.
Nimatzo iChihuaha	Wed Oct 06 03:30:39 Thanks for the offer, you have done enough my friend, I will fix it with one of these options :) it will be a learning experience. I should have thought about this more and gone with the eth option. The stupid thing is it is the first approval for trade, because the swap itself can be paid from the swapped avax. The plan is, that since I had avax lying around, put it into TIME and have that as a leveraged avax position. Then I have a toe in the reserve currency business as well. OHM next!
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