Utopia Talk / Politics / Trump shorted oil and longed s&p500 before his tweet

Jesse Malcolm Barack rank	Tue Mar 24 08:01:46 https://am...6b-5fef-401c-b469-98016ccdb9c3 Minutes before Trump's announcement, $800 million in trades made on oil prices At 9.50pm AEDT yesterday, there was a sudden spike in trading on the oil and S&P 500 futures market. 6.50am New York time is an unusual time for a rush on trades on West Texas Intermediate May futures. But it showed that all of a sudden, a substantial sum of money was bet on oil prices dropping and the stock market rising. In the space of a minute, more than $800 million in trades was made on oil futures. Then a few minutes later, US President Donald Trump made a Truth Social post. "I am pleased to report that the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had, over the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East," Trump wrote. "Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, witch (sic) will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions." The S&P 500 futures market surged and crude oil prices dropped through the floor. And whoever made those trades made an incredible amount of money. A White House spokesperson brushed off the suspicious activity. "The White House does not tolerate any administration official illegally profiteering off of insider knowledge, and any implication that officials are engaged in such activity without evidence is baseless and irresponsible reporting," Kush Desai told FT. Hours later, top Iranian politician Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf denied the president's claim. "No negotiations have been held with the US, and fake news is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped," he said. "Iranian people demand complete and remorseful punishment of the aggressors. "All Iranian officials stand firmly behind their supreme leader and people until this goal is achieved." Today's future market trades are not the first time eyebrows have been raised at suspicious bets before a Trump decision. Betting app Kalshi has refused to pay out $77 million in winnings to punters who bet Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be out of office by March 1. Khamenei was killed by a US and Israeli bombing strike hours before the deadline was reached. Meanwhile on Polymarket, 150 accounts bet more than a million dollars that the US would strike Iran the next day. And in January, a Polymarket user made about $570,000 betting that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would be out of office before the end of the month. They had doubled down on their bet hours before the US seized the leader in a military strike.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 09:35:29 The Trump family with appendages using the office for privat enrichment? Of course that is happening. We knew it would. A choice voters made when electing him.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 09:36:44 A broader question would be why anyone at all would engage in daytrading when this is known. You are giving insiders your money.
Rugian rank	Tue Mar 24 09:52:45 "A broader question would be why anyone at all would engage in daytrading when this is known." Most Americans have 401ks, IRAs, or defined pension plans that are likely auto-investing into the stock market every payday. Because where else are those funds going to go? In a sense it's the ultimate market pump scheme. Tens of trillions of dollars in AUM and growing with every paycheck. You may as well ask why American citizens use USD in their daily lives. They pretty much have to.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 09:56:15 The pump scheme does not matter for steady investors. Even active management rides the ebbs and flows. Its the day traders that are getting whacked. In a wider sense P/E should be 16. It is above 30. Everyone should be mentally prepared for 16.
Rugian rank	Tue Mar 24 10:10:30 Literally impossible. There's too much capital in the system for that much asset depreciation to ever happen, and earnings obviously aren't doubling any time soon.
Rugian rank	Tue Mar 24 10:12:46 Capital naturally flows to the best and most stable investment opportunities. So long as the American capital markets remain the far and away best investment opportunity, the money inflows will continue to be positive.
Rugian rank	Tue Mar 24 10:14:50 "But investors can always invest in Europe / China / anywhere else instead" - no they won't. Between the inferior returns and the capital controls, there's a reason that hasn't happened and won't happen.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 10:15:14 Ruggy Inflation is the obvious vector. Every Ponzi scheme is the best investment opportunity until it is not. A stockmarket detached from dividends being the main reward mechanism is a Ponzi scheme.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 10:19:34 When incidentally do 401ks go negative? The sum of rdms and other withdrawals less than the sum of payments into 401ks?
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 10:21:17 Negative cash flows by 2037. For pension schemes overall in the US. Some are already there of course.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 10:23:22 The answer to "when will this happen" is always the same. When the little guy benefits from it not happening.
Rugian rank	Tue Mar 24 10:35:26 Jergul Long term, the entire world is screwed. Doomer neo-Malthusian policy-makers are ensuring that world's population growth will be zero by the end of the century. The question remains, where does capital go to invest in that world (because ultimately it has to go somewhere). Oh, the US still looks like the best option? Great.
jergul rank	Tue Mar 24 10:50:23 Well, the capital will mainly go to pensions after 2037 and to fund government debt I imagine as public debt accumulation is the main economic driver these days anyway. That is one golden goose it would hurt to kill.
murder rank	Tue Mar 24 17:17:08 "Long term, the entire world is screwed. Doomer neo-Malthusian policy-makers are ensuring that world's population growth will be zero by the end of the century." The robot revolution means we no longer rely on people making babies to feed the machine. The economy will keep growing after we're all gone. -
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