Utopia Talk - Politics - Musk: "SpaceX worth

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Utopia Talk / Politics / Musk: "SpaceX worth > rest of Earth"

murder
rank Fri Jul 10 18:50:11
"Elon Musk once again captured investor attention with a blunt claim on X. He said SpaceX "will be worth more than the rest of Earth" if the company accomplishes its long-term goals."

People keep giving this guy their money.

The government keeps giving this guy OUR money.

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murder
rank Fri Jul 10 18:53:15

"If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels

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Forwyn
rank Fri Jul 10 19:44:20
Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics.

Seb
rank Fri Jul 10 20:11:17
Forwyn:

Lol. So stupid.

Firstly and most importantly Space X isn't an interplanetary company. It hasn't reached the moon yet. So this is like a fusion startup saying it should be valued as a kashardev I civilization because that's their ambition to produce planetary level of electricity and have a monopoly on that and all economic activity on the planet. Cool, nice, but really all they have is some useful tech and services, and insane ambitions.

Secondly, such a valuation or even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk, is based on the idea that SpaceX is in a position to capture most of the value chains involving the planet. This is like e.g. American Airways claiming it's value should exceed that of the US because it has the ability to travel to all the other continents on earth. Er, no. That's not how it works. It's not even on track to be a company that could capture all value chains on another planet (say mars). They don't have any of the technologies actually needed to address the technical challenges of settling Mars. Indeed just getting there is likely the easy part.

Thirdly Do we really expect the value of Mars to exceed the value of earth on Earth stock exchanges? Think about what that actually means? How do you actually get capital to Mars or Martian derived capital back to earth? You can basically think of space travel like a giant fucking capital controls mechanism that can't be got around; even if we imagine a future where the internal economy of Mars is a big as an OECD country, which isn't likely.

Finally. Cool, SpaceX is burbling on about how they will perfect the technology to get to Mars, ergo they should be valued greater than the whole value of the Earth economy. But where is their moat? Ultimately there will be fast followers, many of which will be Chinese and likely rapidly outproduce SpaceX if there's that much value, and their likely response to SpaceX trying to claim it owns Mars is just to forcibly remove SpaceX. To earth, if they are nice. To the local biomass reclamation facilities is not.

murder
rank Fri Jul 10 20:32:47

"Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics."

So you're expecting a more than 8 billion humans in space?

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Sam Adams
rank Fri Jul 10 21:50:15
"if"

Doing a lot of work there.

And lol seb completely misses another basic word definition. Medicine might help with this.

murder
rank Fri Jul 10 23:09:43

He may as well have said "if winged monkeys fly out of my ass".

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Seb
rank Sat Jul 11 00:03:38
NaMBLA:

So *if* SpaceX achieves it's ambitions, do you think it will be worth more than the rest of the earth?

P.s. reason Musk is saying this is not an abstract hypothetical. He's trying to get suckers to buy SpaceX shares on the strong expectation of that upside. Hence "even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk".

For simplicity, because you need it:

1. These ambitions are so far extrapolated from what SpaceX is now as to be laughable. The if is not doing heavy lifting so much as crushed by insurmountable weights. It's like saying "if my daughter achieves her lemonade stands ambitions, it will be worth more than coca cola". Sure. Sure. If.

2. Even if spaceX did achieve its ambitions, it still wouldn't be worth more than the rest of the earth for several very obvious reasons that no "if" can get around.

Sam Adams
rank Sat Jul 11 00:15:17
If everything went right, ya. Imagine an interplanetary powerhouse where the smartest people have freedom to build automated factories, and an earth full of the remaining low IQ sebs, hobbled badly by socialism royally sucks. Possible, no?

It is of course very unlikely that SpaceX could pull that off and also unlikely that the entire earth is infested with your failed ethos seb.

Habebe
rank Sat Jul 11 00:28:57
***IF**** it accomplishes it's long term goals.

It's long term goals are astronomical. They may not be plausible, they will not be on time (Id bet money on that)

But they give this guy money for a reason....

SpaceX has absolutely achieved things thought nearly impossible.

Sam Adams
rank Sat Jul 11 00:34:36
I could see SpaceX being worth more than the UK in the not too distant future.

murder
rank Sat Jul 11 03:26:21

"But they give this guy money for a reason..."

Because morons.

Elon would be less full of shit if he were hyping his new alchemy startup.

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murder
rank Sat Jul 11 03:26:55

"SpaceX has absolutely achieved things thought nearly impossible."

Like what?

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jergul
rank Sat Jul 11 03:34:59
Ketamin seems like a lot of fun. Or can I just freestyle meglomania without the drug? What do you think?

TheChildren
rank Sat Jul 11 07:43:46
a toyota car from 1971 is worth more than scamx

Seb
rank Sat Jul 11 11:25:24
NaMBLA:

"Imagine an interplanetary powerhouse where the smartest people have freedom to build automated factories"

Yeah. I mean by all means, actually imagine how that would work out as an economic system and how valuation and value creation would work on such a scenario. Look at the relative value of manufacturing to other sectors of the economy. About 15%.

It's quickly apparent it doesn't work out the same way as a rapidly industrialised new continent, say.

This weird idea that value is intrinsic in stuff rather than arising from exchange.

Honestly this is all Atlas Shrugged nonsense: the kind of economics washed up ideologues produces, or the mutterings of a man who buys a rocket company and then imagines he must be a rocket scientist.

Seb
rank Sat Jul 11 11:36:17
A company producing more than the UK (3% of global GDP, so producing output on that scale) is entirely feasible. The East India company at is height controlled about 10% of global output by find some estimates.

Worth starts to get very complicated though given capital.

What's the capital value of the earth and all the people in it (including their lives) - to the people and entities that live in it?

See what I mean yet?

So yeah, let's imagine a handfull of the Tony Starks NaMBLA imagines himself to be one of floating around with his automated factory in spaaaace and ask the question, what could he produce that would be worth more to the inhabitants of the world than the world (and by extension their own existence, given there's no substitute) itself?

We are back to the land of useful parables:
The relative wealth of a man with a briefcase full of bearer bonds stranded in a jungle village with an agrarian barter economy. Or libertarians as house cats: convinced of their fierce independence while totally unaware that they owe their existence to a benevolent system they cannot perceive or comprehend.

Seb
rank Sat Jul 11 11:42:16
Or "I'll bring back a solid gold asteroid that would be worth more than the global economy and just buy the entire world and everything in it".

It. Doesn't. Work. Like. That.

While imagining yourself to be thinking big thoughts, you are thinking far too small: applying a model representing the steady state dynamics of a system slightly perturbed from equilibrium while introducing factors that violate the assumptions of that model.

williamthebastard
rank Sat Jul 11 11:50:44
The minute we find that much gold it drops catastrophically in value, fucking dumbasses, oblivious of the simplest inflation rules

williamthebastard
rank Sat Jul 11 11:57:58
An entire country mentally shut down, brainwashed by idiotic action sci-fi movies into judging the real daily world according to superhero hollywood movie scenes.

show deleted posts

murder rank	Fri Jul 10 18:50:11 "Elon Musk once again captured investor attention with a blunt claim on X. He said SpaceX "will be worth more than the rest of Earth" if the company accomplishes its long-term goals." People keep giving this guy their money. The government keeps giving this guy OUR money. -
murder rank	Fri Jul 10 18:53:15 "If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." -- Joseph Goebbels -
Forwyn rank	Fri Jul 10 19:44:20 Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics.
Seb rank	Fri Jul 10 20:11:17 Forwyn: Lol. So stupid. Firstly and most importantly Space X isn't an interplanetary company. It hasn't reached the moon yet. So this is like a fusion startup saying it should be valued as a kashardev I civilization because that's their ambition to produce planetary level of electricity and have a monopoly on that and all economic activity on the planet. Cool, nice, but really all they have is some useful tech and services, and insane ambitions. Secondly, such a valuation or even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk, is based on the idea that SpaceX is in a position to capture most of the value chains involving the planet. This is like e.g. American Airways claiming it's value should exceed that of the US because it has the ability to travel to all the other continents on earth. Er, no. That's not how it works. It's not even on track to be a company that could capture all value chains on another planet (say mars). They don't have any of the technologies actually needed to address the technical challenges of settling Mars. Indeed just getting there is likely the easy part. Thirdly Do we really expect the value of Mars to exceed the value of earth on Earth stock exchanges? Think about what that actually means? How do you actually get capital to Mars or Martian derived capital back to earth? You can basically think of space travel like a giant fucking capital controls mechanism that can't be got around; even if we imagine a future where the internal economy of Mars is a big as an OECD country, which isn't likely. Finally. Cool, SpaceX is burbling on about how they will perfect the technology to get to Mars, ergo they should be valued greater than the whole value of the Earth economy. But where is their moat? Ultimately there will be fast followers, many of which will be Chinese and likely rapidly outproduce SpaceX if there's that much value, and their likely response to SpaceX trying to claim it owns Mars is just to forcibly remove SpaceX. To earth, if they are nice. To the local biomass reclamation facilities is not.
murder rank	Fri Jul 10 20:32:47 "Yes, an interplanetary organization can easily outstrip one planet at scale. This is simple mathematics." So you're expecting a more than 8 billion humans in space? -
Sam Adams rank	Fri Jul 10 21:50:15 "if" Doing a lot of work there. And lol seb completely misses another basic word definition. Medicine might help with this.
murder rank	Fri Jul 10 23:09:43 He may as well have said "if winged monkeys fly out of my ass". -
Seb rank	Sat Jul 11 00:03:38 NaMBLA: So if SpaceX achieves it's ambitions, do you think it will be worth more than the rest of the earth? P.s. reason Musk is saying this is not an abstract hypothetical. He's trying to get suckers to buy SpaceX shares on the strong expectation of that upside. Hence "even one based on an expectation of such but discounted for risk". For simplicity, because you need it: 1. These ambitions are so far extrapolated from what SpaceX is now as to be laughable. The if is not doing heavy lifting so much as crushed by insurmountable weights. It's like saying "if my daughter achieves her lemonade stands ambitions, it will be worth more than coca cola". Sure. Sure. If. 2. Even if spaceX did achieve its ambitions, it still wouldn't be worth more than the rest of the earth for several very obvious reasons that no "if" can get around.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jul 11 00:15:17 If everything went right, ya. Imagine an interplanetary powerhouse where the smartest people have freedom to build automated factories, and an earth full of the remaining low IQ sebs, hobbled badly by socialism royally sucks. Possible, no? It is of course very unlikely that SpaceX could pull that off and also unlikely that the entire earth is infested with your failed ethos seb.
Habebe rank	Sat Jul 11 00:28:57 *IF** it accomplishes it's long term goals. It's long term goals are astronomical. They may not be plausible, they will not be on time (Id bet money on that) But they give this guy money for a reason.... SpaceX has absolutely achieved things thought nearly impossible.
Sam Adams rank	Sat Jul 11 00:34:36 I could see SpaceX being worth more than the UK in the not too distant future.
murder rank	Sat Jul 11 03:26:21 "But they give this guy money for a reason..." Because morons. Elon would be less full of shit if he were hyping his new alchemy startup. -
murder rank	Sat Jul 11 03:26:55 "SpaceX has absolutely achieved things thought nearly impossible." Like what? -
jergul rank	Sat Jul 11 03:34:59 Ketamin seems like a lot of fun. Or can I just freestyle meglomania without the drug? What do you think?
TheChildren rank	Sat Jul 11 07:43:46 a toyota car from 1971 is worth more than scamx
Seb rank	Sat Jul 11 11:25:24 NaMBLA: "Imagine an interplanetary powerhouse where the smartest people have freedom to build automated factories" Yeah. I mean by all means, actually imagine how that would work out as an economic system and how valuation and value creation would work on such a scenario. Look at the relative value of manufacturing to other sectors of the economy. About 15%. It's quickly apparent it doesn't work out the same way as a rapidly industrialised new continent, say. This weird idea that value is intrinsic in stuff rather than arising from exchange. Honestly this is all Atlas Shrugged nonsense: the kind of economics washed up ideologues produces, or the mutterings of a man who buys a rocket company and then imagines he must be a rocket scientist.
Seb rank	Sat Jul 11 11:36:17 A company producing more than the UK (3% of global GDP, so producing output on that scale) is entirely feasible. The East India company at is height controlled about 10% of global output by find some estimates. Worth starts to get very complicated though given capital. What's the capital value of the earth and all the people in it (including their lives) - to the people and entities that live in it? See what I mean yet? So yeah, let's imagine a handfull of the Tony Starks NaMBLA imagines himself to be one of floating around with his automated factory in spaaaace and ask the question, what could he produce that would be worth more to the inhabitants of the world than the world (and by extension their own existence, given there's no substitute) itself? We are back to the land of useful parables: The relative wealth of a man with a briefcase full of bearer bonds stranded in a jungle village with an agrarian barter economy. Or libertarians as house cats: convinced of their fierce independence while totally unaware that they owe their existence to a benevolent system they cannot perceive or comprehend.
Seb rank	Sat Jul 11 11:42:16 Or "I'll bring back a solid gold asteroid that would be worth more than the global economy and just buy the entire world and everything in it". It. Doesn't. Work. Like. That. While imagining yourself to be thinking big thoughts, you are thinking far too small: applying a model representing the steady state dynamics of a system slightly perturbed from equilibrium while introducing factors that violate the assumptions of that model.
williamthebastard rank	Sat Jul 11 11:50:44 The minute we find that much gold it drops catastrophically in value, fucking dumbasses, oblivious of the simplest inflation rules
williamthebastard rank	Sat Jul 11 11:57:58 An entire country mentally shut down, brainwashed by idiotic action sci-fi movies into judging the real daily world according to superhero hollywood movie scenes.
	show deleted posts

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